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Assessment of the tax and transfer changes in Hungary between 2010 and 2017 using a microsimulation model

Author

Listed:
  • Mihály Szoboszlai

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary))

  • Zoltán Bögöthy

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary))

  • Pálma Mosberger

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary))

  • Dávid Berta

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary))

Abstract

In this study, we analyse the immediate budgetary and the long-term macroeconomic and fiscal effects of measures concerning taxes, contributions and transfers in the period between 2010 and 2017 with a microsimulation model. The corresponding tool is an updated and extended version of the behavioural general equilibrium microsimulation model developed by the Magyar Nemzeti Bank. Among the relevant fiscal policy measures, we primarily took into account the changes in labour taxes, the main elements of the transformation of social benefits and indirectly several other tax changes (on sales, capital and consumption taxes) over the period between 2010 and 2017. Our results suggest that the policy measures examined might contribute to Hungarian GDP growth by nearly 6 percent with a labour supply growth exceeding 6 percent from 2010 onward. The measures have a positive effect on the general government balance, improving the fiscal position over the long run by more than HUF 200 billion. The effects of the statutory changes are evaluated separately and cumulatively. The results of the study might be significantly influenced by the calibrated parameter values in the macromodel that is linked to the microsimulation.

Suggested Citation

  • Mihály Szoboszlai & Zoltán Bögöthy & Pálma Mosberger & Dávid Berta, 2018. "Assessment of the tax and transfer changes in Hungary between 2010 and 2017 using a microsimulation model," MNB Occasional Papers 2018/135, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    • Handle: RePEc:mnb:opaper:2018/135
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Matus Senaj & Zuzana Siebertova & Norbert Svarda & Jana Valachyova, 2016. "Labour Force Participation Elasticities: the Case of Slovakia," Working Papers Working Paper No. 1/2016, Council for Budget Responsibility.
    2. Áron Kiss & Pálma Mosberger, 2015. "The elasticity of taxable income of high earners: evidence from Hungary," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 883-908, March.
    3. Matus Senaj & Zuzana Siebertova & Norbert Svarda & Jana Valachyova, 2016. "Labour force participation elasticities and the move away from a flat tax: the case of Slovakia," IZA Journal of European Labor Studies, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 5(1), pages 1-26, December.
    4. Gábor Kátay & Péter Benczúr & Áron Kiss & Olivér M. Rácz, 2014. "Income Taxation, Transfers and Labour Supply at the Extensive Margin," EcoMod2014 6925, EcoMod.
    5. Kamil Galuscak & Gabor Katay, 2014. "Labour Force Participation and Tax-Benefit Systems: A Cross-Country Comparative Perspective," Working Papers 2014/10, Czech National Bank.
    6. John Creedy, 2004. "Survey Reweighting For Tax Microsimulation Modelling," Research on Economic Inequality, in: Studies on Economic Well-Being: Essays in the Honor of John P. Formby, pages 229-249, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    7. Péter Benczúr & Gábor Kátay & Áron Kiss, 2012. "Assessing changes of the Hungarian tax and transfer system: A general-equilibrium microsimulation approach," MNB Working Papers 2012/7, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    8. Péter Benczúr & Gábor Kátay & Áron Kiss & Balázs Reizer & Mihály Szoboszlai, 2011. "Analysis of changes in the tax and transfer system with a behavioural microsimulation model," MNB Bulletin (discontinued), Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 6(3), pages 15-27, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    behavioural microsimulation; micro macro model; taxation; transfers; tax reform;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H22 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Incidence
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household

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