Assessing changes of the Hungarian tax and transfer system: A general-equilibrium microsimulation approach
AbstractWe present a new general-equilibrium behavioural microsimulation model designed to assess long-run macroeconomic and fiscal consequences of reforms to the tax and transfer system. General-equilibrium feedback effects are simulated by embedding microsimulation in a parsimonious macro model of a small open economy. We estimate and calibrate the model to Hungary, and then perform three sets of simulations. The first one explores the impact of personal income tax rate reductions which are identical in cost but different in structure. The second one compares three different tax shift scenarios, while the third one evaluates actual policy measures between 2008 and 2013. The results suggest that while a cut in the marginal tax rate of high-income individuals may boost output, it does not have a significant employment effect. On the other hand, programs like the Employee Tax Credit do have a significant employment effect. We find that policy measures since 2008 substantially increase income inequality in the long run; the contribution of the changes after 2010 are about three times that of the changes before 2010. Our results highlight that taking account of household heterogeneity is crucial in the analysis of the macroeconomic effects of tax and transfer reforms.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary) in its series MNB Working Papers with number 2012/7.
Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
behavioural microsimulation; linked micro macro model; tax system; transfers;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- H22 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Incidence
- H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household
- C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ACC-2013-01-19 (Accounting & Auditing)
- NEP-ALL-2013-01-19 (All new papers)
- NEP-CMP-2013-01-19 (Computational Economics)
- NEP-PBE-2013-01-19 (Public Economics)
- NEP-TRA-2013-01-19 (Transition Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Cogneau, Denis & Robilliard, Anne-Sophie, 2000. "Growth, distribution and poverty in Madagascar," TMD discussion papers 61, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Andreas Peichl, 2009.
"The Benefits and Problems of Linking Micro and Macro Models: Evidence from a Flat Tax Analysis,"
SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research
182, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
- Andreas Peichl, 2009. "The benefits and problems of linking micro and macromodels - Evidence from a flat tax analysis," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 301-329, November.
- Rutherford, Thomas & Tarr, David & Shepotylo, Oleksandr, 2005. "The impact on Russia of WTO accession and the Doha agenda : the importance of liberalization of barriers against foreign direct investment in services for growth and poverty reduction," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3725, The World Bank.
- Fernandez, Pablo & Aguirreamalloa, Javier & Corres, Luis, 2011. "Market risk premium used in 56 countries in 2011: A survey with 6,014 answers," IESE Research Papers D/920, IESE Business School.
- Clemens Fuest & Andreas Peichl & Thilo Schaefer, 2008. "Is a flat tax reform feasible in a grown-up democracy of Western Europe? A simulation study for Germany," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 15(5), pages 620-636, October.
- James B Davies, 2009. "Combining microsimulation with CGE and macro modelling for distributional analysis in developing and transition countries," International Journal of Microsimulation, Interational Microsimulation Association, vol. 2(1), pages 49-56.
- Fernandez, Pablo & del Campo, Javier, 2011. "Market risk premium used in 2010 by analysts and companies: A survey with 2.400 answers," IESE Research Papers D/912, IESE Business School.
- Bourguignon, François & Robilliard, Anne-Sophie & Robinson, Sherman, 2008. "Examining the Social Impact of the Indonesian Financial Crisis Using a Macro-Micro Model," Open Access publications from UniversitÃ© Paris-Dauphine urn:hdl:123456789/5130, Université Paris-Dauphine.
- Creedy, John & Duncan, Alan, 2002. " Behavioural Microsimulation with Labour Supply Responses," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 1-39, February.
- Cororaton, Caesar B. & Cockburn, John, 2007. "Trade reform and poverty--Lessons from the Philippines: A CGE-microsimulation analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 141-163.
- Aron Kiss, 2013. "Developments in the theory of optimal income taxation with applications to the Hungarian tax system," IEHAS Discussion Papers 1317, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Johanna Jeney).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.