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The evaluation of fiscal consolidation strategies

Author

Listed:
  • Matus Senaj

    (Council for Budget Responsibility)

  • Zuzana Siebertova

    (Council for Budget Responsibility)

  • Norbert Svarda

    (Council for Budget Responsibility)

  • Jana Valachyova

    (Council for Budget Responsibility)

Abstract

In this paper, we present a framework and perform an assessment of different fiscal consolidation strategies both on the revenue as well as on the expenditure sides of the budget in the context of Slovakia. The model we use for simulations is a behavioural general-equilibrium what_if model. We analyse the simulated impacts of consolidation strategies on growth and on fiscal balance (both in short- and long- term). The microsimulation approach allows us also to evaluate the distributional impacts. In addition, the approach permits to compare the statutory with the resulting tax incidence in the long-run. We simulate strategies based on taxing labour income, taxing consumption as well as cutting expenditures on social transfers. We document that corporate and labour taxes are more unfavourable to output growth, while consumption taxes belong to less damaging instruments for consolidation. We show that spending cuts may promote employment and are not detrimental to output growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Matus Senaj & Zuzana Siebertova & Norbert Svarda & Jana Valachyova, 2018. "The evaluation of fiscal consolidation strategies," Working Papers Working Paper No. 2/2018, Council for Budget Responsibility.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbe:wpaper:201802
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Matus Senaj & Zuzana Siebertova & Norbert Svarda & Jana Valachyova, 2018. "The Evaluation of Fiscal Consolidation Strategies," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 11(3), pages 39-58.
    2. John Cockburn & Luc Savard & Luca Tiberti, 2014. "Macro-Micro Models," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: Handbook of Microsimulation Modelling, volume 127, pages 275-304, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
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    10. Matus Senaj & Zuzana Siebertova & Norbert Svarda & Jana Valachyova, 2016. "Labour force participation elasticities and the move away from a flat tax: the case of Slovakia," IZA Journal of European Labor Studies, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 5(1), pages 1-26, December.
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    1. Matus Senaj & Zuzana Siebertova & Norbert Svarda & Jana Valachyova, 2018. "The Evaluation of Fiscal Consolidation Strategies," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 11(3), pages 39-58.
    2. Michal Horváth & Zuzana Siebertová, 2019. "Employment Effects of Income Tax Reforms: Lessons from Slovakia," Discussion Papers 54, Central European Labour Studies Institute (CELSI).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    microsimulation; general equilibrium; tax and transfer policy; Slovakia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • H22 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Incidence
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs

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