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Demographic Change in Asia: the Impact on Optimal National Saving, Investment and the Current Account

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Author Info

  • Guest, R.S.
  • McDonald, I.M.

Abstract

By simulating a model of the optimal level of saving in a small open economy, this paper calculates the levels of optimal national saving, investment and the current account balance for five Asian countries, Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, Malaysia and Philippines, for the period from 1997 to 2050. The calculations focus on the implications of making allowance for the changing demographic structure of the population on employment participation, labour productivity and consumption demands. The simulations show that variations in prospective demographic change across countries cause considerable variations in the patterns of their optimal rates of national saving, reinforcing the idea that evaluations of a country's performance on saving should take account of the prospective demographic structure of its population.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The University of Melbourne in its series Department of Economics - Working Papers Series with number 726.

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Length: 46 pages
Date of creation: 1999
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mlb:wpaper:726

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Postal: Department of Economics, The University of Melbourne, 5th Floor, Economics and Commerce Building, Victoria, 3010, Australia
Phone: +61 3 8344 5289
Fax: +61 3 8344 6899
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Web page: http://www.economics.unimelb.edu.au
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Keywords: DEMOGRAPHY ; ASIA ; INVESTMENTS ; INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY;

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Cited by:
  1. Young Jun Chun, 2007. "Population Aging, Fiscal Policies, and National Saving: Predictions for the Korean Economy," NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Policy and Management in East Asia, NBER-EASE, Volume 16, pages 339-372 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 2007. "Comment on "Population Aging, Fiscal Policies, and National Saving: Predictions for the Korean Economy"," NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Policy and Management in East Asia, NBER-EASE, Volume 16, pages 372-373 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Young Jun Chun, 2006. "Population Aging, Fiscal Policies, and National Saving: Predictions for Korean Economy," NBER Working Papers 12265, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. John Janssen, 2002. "Long-term fiscal projections and their relationship with the intertemporal budget constraint: An application to New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/05, New Zealand Treasury.

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