Demographic Change in Asia: the Impact on Optimal National Saving, Investment and the Current Account
AbstractBy simulating a model of the optimal level of saving in a small open economy, this paper calculates the levels of optimal national saving, investment and the current account balance for five Asian countries, Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, Malaysia and Philippines, for the period from 1997 to 2050. The calculations focus on the implications of making allowance for the changing demographic structure of the population on employment participation, labour productivity and consumption demands. The simulations show that variations in prospective demographic change across countries cause considerable variations in the patterns of their optimal rates of national saving, reinforcing the idea that evaluations of a country's performance on saving should take account of the prospective demographic structure of its population.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by The University of Melbourne in its series Department of Economics - Working Papers Series with number 726.
Length: 46 pages
Date of creation: 1999
Date of revision:
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Postal: Department of Economics, The University of Melbourne, 5th Floor, Economics and Commerce Building, Victoria, 3010, Australia
Phone: +61 3 8344 5289
Fax: +61 3 8344 6899
Web page: http://www.economics.unimelb.edu.au
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DEMOGRAPHY ; ASIA ; INVESTMENTS ; INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY;
Other versions of this item:
- Ian McDonald & Serge BÃ©sanger & Ross Guest, 2000. "Demographic Change in Asia - The Impact on Optimal National Saving, investment, and the Current Account," IMF Working Papers 00/115, International Monetary Fund.
- E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Capital; Investment; Capacity
- F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
- J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
- E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
- F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
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- Young Jun Chun, 2007. "Population Aging, Fiscal Policies, and National Saving: Predictions for the Korean Economy," NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Policy and Management in East Asia, NBER-EASE, Volume 16, pages 339-372 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Young Jun Chun, 2006. "Population Aging, Fiscal Policies, and National Saving: Predictions for Korean Economy," NBER Working Papers 12265, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John Janssen, 2002. "Long-term fiscal projections and their relationship with the intertemporal budget constraint: An application to New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/05, New Zealand Treasury.
- Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 2007. "Comment on "Population Aging, Fiscal Policies, and National Saving: Predictions for the Korean Economy"," NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Policy and Management in East Asia, NBER-EASE, Volume 16, pages 372-373 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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