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Auswirkungen der Finanzkrise auf die private Altersvorsorge

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  • Börsch-Supan, Axel

    ()

  • Gasche, Martin

    ()

  • Ziegelmeyer, Michael

    ()
    (Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA))

Abstract

Die starken Vermögensverluste einzelner Anlageklassen in 2008 durch die Finanz- und aufkommende Wirtschaftskrise führte zu einer Diskussion über die Risiken der kapitalgedeckten Altersvorsorge. Diese Studie quantifiziert die Höhe der Vermögensverluste und Renditeeinbußen durch die Finanz- und Wirtschaftskrise bei der kapitalgedeckten Altersvorsorge. Die Datenbasis bilden die SAVE Daten 2008. Die Effekte auf die Portfolios der Haushalte werden auf Basis der Vermögensbestände Ende 2007 und der beobachteten Renditeentwicklung in 2008 über verschiedene Anlageklassen abgeschätzt. Im Vergleich zum Vermögen im Referenzszenario ohne Krise ergeben sich durchschnittliche Finanzvermögensverluste von rund 3.000 Euro oder 8,5%. Dies ist geringfügig weniger als die Verluste, die aus der Geldvermögensstatistik der Bundesbank abgeleitet werden können. Beschränkt man sich nur auf das Altersvorsorgevermögen, liegt der mittlere Verlust bei 3%. Man kann diese Vermögensverluste differenziert nach Geburtsjahrgängen über das gesamte Erwerbsleben bis zum Rentenalter fortschreiben und in einen Renditeverlust umrechnen. Dies führt für die Geburtsjahrgänge 1940 bis 1990 zu Renditeeinbußen von maximal 0,1 Prozentpunkten für das Altersvorsorgevermögen und maximal 0,2 Prozentpunkten für das Finanzvermögen. Die größten Renditeverluste haben die gerade in die Rente eingetretenen und die rentennahen Jahrgänge, weil sie zum Zeitpunkt der Krise schon viel Vermögen angesammelt haben und deshalb auch die größten Verluste erleiden. Da der Renditerückgang durch den demographischen Wandel jedoch weit größer ist als der Renditerückgang durch die Finanzkrise, genießen diese Jahrgänge immer noch eine deutlich höhere Rendite als die jüngeren Jahrgänge.

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Paper provided by Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy in its series MEA discussion paper series with number 09193.

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Date of creation: 30 Dec 2009
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Handle: RePEc:mea:meawpa:09193

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  1. Michael Ziegelmeyer, 2009. "Documentation of the logical imputation using the panel structure of the 2003-2008 German SAVE Survey," MEA discussion paper series 09173, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
  2. Daniel Schunk, 2008. "A Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for multiple imputation in large surveys," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer, vol. 92(1), pages 101-114, February.
  3. Krüger, Dirk & Ludwig, Alexander, 2006. "On the Consequences of Demographic Change for Rates of Return to Capital, and the Distribution of Wealth and Welfare," CEPR Discussion Papers 5834, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Imrohoroglu, Ayse, 2007. "Consequences of demographic change for rates of returns to capital, and the distribution of wealth and welfare: A comment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 88-91, January.
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Cited by:
  1. Bucher-Koenen, Tabea & Kluth, Sebastian, 2013. "Subjective Life Expectancy and Private Pensions," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79806, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  2. Sarah Necker & Michael Ziegelmeyer, 2014. "Household Risk Taking after the Financial Crisis," BCL working papers 85, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
  3. Tabea Bucher-Koenen & Michael Ziegelmeyer, 2011. "Who lost the most? Financial Literacy, Cognitive Abilities, and the Financial Crisis," BCL working papers 54, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
  4. Bucher-Koenen, Tabea, 2011. "Financial Literacy, Riester Pensions, and Other Private Old Age Provision in Germany," MEA discussion paper series 11250, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
  5. Bucher-Koenen, Tabea & Kluth, Sebastian, 2013. "Subjective Life Expectancy and Private Pensions," MEA discussion paper series 12265, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.

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