Business Demography Dynamics in Portugal: a Semi-parametric Survival Analysis
AbstractWe address the post-entry performance of new Portuguese firms by investigating the structural characteristics of the hazard and survival functions, using semi-parametric survival analysis for the total economy and its broad sectors. In order to approach the prevalence of some stylized facts and determinants of new firm survival, a new entrepreneurship database was produced, using the administrative data of Quadros de Pessoal, following the Eurostat/OECD´s internationally comparable business demography methodology. In line with the literature, we find that firms that start small and experience faster post-entry growth, face a higher probability of survival. Firm’s current size dimension matters particularly for the Services sector probability of survival. In industries characterized by high entry rates, post-entry survival is more difficult. This happens mostly in Agriculture and the Construction sectors in Portugal. We find a different result from the literature, for the effect of industry growth in survival rates. Firms operating in industries which are growing faster, seem to suffer from a higher probability of failure. The combined effect of turbulence and entry and growth variables help explaining this unexpected effect of industry growth on survival probabilities. By correcting heterogeneity, we obtain stronger magnitudes of the hazard ratios found previously
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia e da Inovação in its series GEE Papers with number 0023.
Length: 19 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2010
Date of revision: Sep 2010
Entrepreneurship; Business; Demography; Business Survival; Performance Determinants; Micro-data;
Other versions of this item:
- Alcina Nunes & Elsa Sarmento, 2010. "Business Demography Dynamics in Portugal: A Semi-Parametric Survival Analysis," GEMF Working Papers 2010-10, GEMF - Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra.
- C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
- C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
- L25 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Performance
- L26 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Entrepreneurship
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-11-06 (All new papers)
- NEP-ENT-2010-11-06 (Entrepreneurship)
- NEP-SBM-2010-11-06 (Small Business Management)
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