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Estimation of the Default Risk of Publicly Traded Canadian Companies

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  • Georges Dionne
  • Sadok Laajimi
  • Sofiane Mejri
  • Madalina Petrescu

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate the hybrid contingent claim approach with publicly traded Canadian companies listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange. Our goal is to assess how combining their continuous valuation by the market with the value given in their financial statements improves our ability to predict their probability of default. Our results indicate that the predicted structural probabilities of default (PDs from the structural model) contribute significantly to explaining default probabilities when PDs are included alongside the retained accounting variables. We also show that quarterly updates to the PDs add a large amount of dynamic information to explain the probabilities of default over the course of a year. This flexibility would not be possible with a reduced-form model. We also conducted a preliminary analysis of correlations between sructural probabilities of default for the firms in our database. Our results indicate that there are substantial correlations in the studied data.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CIRPEE in its series Cahiers de recherche with number 0613.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:lvl:lacicr:0613

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Keywords: Default risk; public firm; structural model; reduced form model; hybrid model; probit model; Toronto Stock Exchange; correlations between default probabilities;

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References

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  13. Jin-Chuan Duan & Andras Fulop, 2005. "Estimating the Structural Credit Risk Model When Equity Prices Are Contaminated by Trading Noises," IEHAS Discussion Papers 0517, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences.
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Cited by:
  1. Maria Giuli & Dean Fantazzini & Mario Maggi, 2008. "A New Approach for Firm Value and Default Probability Estimation beyond Merton Models," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 31(2), pages 161-180, March.
  2. Reisz, Alexander S. & Perlich, Claudia, 2007. "A market-based framework for bankruptcy prediction," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 85-131, July.

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