Estimation of the Default Risk of Publicly Traded Canadian Companies
AbstractIn this paper, we investigate the hybrid contingent claim approach with publicly traded Canadian companies listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange. Our goal is to assess how combining their continuous valuation by the market with the value given in their financial statements improves our ability to predict their probability of default. Our results indicate that the predicted structural probabilities of default (PDs from the structural model) contribute significantly to explaining default probabilities when PDs are included alongside the retained accounting variables. We also show that quarterly updates to the PDs add a large amount of dynamic information to explain the probabilities of default over the course of a year. This flexibility would not be possible with a reduced-form model. We also conducted a preliminary analysis of correlations between sructural probabilities of default for the firms in our database. Our results indicate that there are substantial correlations in the studied data.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by CIRPEE in its series Cahiers de recherche with number 0613.
Date of creation: 2006
Date of revision:
Default risk; public firm; structural model; reduced form model; hybrid model; probit model; Toronto Stock Exchange; correlations between default probabilities;
Other versions of this item:
- Georges Dionne & Sadok Laajimi & Sofiane Mejri & Madalina Petrescu, 2006. "Estimation of the Default Risk of Publicly Traded Canadian Companies," Working Papers 06-28, Bank of Canada.
- G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
- G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
- G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
- G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ACC-2006-05-13 (Accounting & Auditing)
- NEP-ALL-2006-05-13 (All new papers)
- NEP-BEC-2006-05-13 (Business Economics)
- NEP-CFN-2006-05-13 (Corporate Finance)
- NEP-FIN-2006-05-13 (Finance)
- NEP-FMK-2006-05-13 (Financial Markets)
- NEP-RMG-2006-05-13 (Risk Management)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jarrow, Robert A & Turnbull, Stuart M, 1995. " Pricing Derivatives on Financial Securities Subject to Credit Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 53-85, March.
- Brennan, Michael J & Schwartz, Edwardo S, 1978. "Corporate Income Taxes, Valuation, and the Problem of Optimal Capital Structure," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(1), pages 103-14, January.
- Georges Dionne & Geneviève Gauthier & Khemais Hammami & Mathieu Maurice & Jean-Guy Simonato, 2010.
"Default Risk in Corporate Yield Spreads,"
Financial Management Association International, vol. 39(2), pages 707-731, 06.
- Geroski,Paul A. & Gregg,Paul, 1997.
"Coping with Recession,"
Cambridge University Press, number 9780521622769, November.
- Jin-Chuan Duan & Andras Fulop, 2005. "Estimating the Structural Credit Risk Model When Equity Prices Are Contaminated by Trading Noises," IEHAS Discussion Papers 0517, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences.
- Michael B. Gordy, 1998.
"A comparative anatomy of credit risk models,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
1998-47, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Merxe Tudela & Garry Young, 2003.
"A Merton-model approach to assessing the default risk of UK public companies,"
Bank of England working papers
194, Bank of England.
- M. Tudela & G. Young, 2005. "A Merton-Model Approach To Assessing The Default Risk Of Uk Public Companies," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(06), pages 737-761.
- Tudela, Merxe & Garry Young, 2003. "A Merton Model Approach to Assessing the Default Risk of UK Public Companies," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 207, Royal Economic Society.
- Briys, Eric & de Varenne, François, 1997. "Valuing Risky Fixed Rate Debt: An Extension," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(02), pages 239-248, June.
- Hayne E. Leland., 1994.
"Corporate Debt Value, Bond Covenants, and Optimal Capital Structure,"
Research Program in Finance Working Papers
RPF-233, University of California at Berkeley.
- Leland, Hayne E, 1994. " Corporate Debt Value, Bond Covenants, and Optimal Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1213-52, September.
- Leland, Hayne E & Toft, Klaus Bjerre, 1996.
" Optimal Capital Structure, Endogenous Bankruptcy, and the Term Structure of Credit Spreads,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 51(3), pages 987-1019, July.
- Hayne E. Leland and Klaus Bjerre Toft., 1995. "Optimal Capital Structure, Endogenous Bankruptcy, and the Term Structure of Credit Spreads," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-259, University of California at Berkeley.
- Jarrow, Robert A & Lando, David & Turnbull, Stuart M, 1997. "A Markov Model for the Term Structure of Credit Risk Spreads," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(2), pages 481-523.
- Brockman, Paul & Turtle, H. J., 2003. "A barrier option framework for corporate security valuation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 511-529, March.
- Maria Vassalou & Yuhang Xing, 2004. "Default Risk in Equity Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(2), pages 831-868, 04.
- Crouhy, Michel & Galai, Dan & Mark, Robert, 2000. "A comparative analysis of current credit risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 59-117, January.
- Chunsheng Zhou, 1997. "A jump-diffusion approach to modeling credit risk and valuing defaultable securities," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1997-15, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
- Maria Giuli & Dean Fantazzini & Mario Maggi, 2008. "A New Approach for Firm Value and Default Probability Estimation beyond Merton Models," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 31(2), pages 161-180, March.
- Reisz, Alexander S. & Perlich, Claudia, 2007. "A market-based framework for bankruptcy prediction," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 85-131, July.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Johanne Perron).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.