Estimation of the Default Risk of Publicly Traded Canadian Companies
AbstractIn this paper, we investigate the hybrid contingent claim approach with publicly traded Canadian companies listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange. Our goal is to assess how combining their continuous valuation by the market with the value given in their financial statements improves our ability to predict their probability of default. Our results indicate that the predicted structural probabilities of default (PDs from the structural model) contribute significantly to explaining default probabilities when PDs are included alongside the retained accounting variables. We also show that quarterly updates to the PDs add a large amount of dynamic information to explain the probabilities of default over the course of a year. This flexibility would not be possible with a reduced-form model. We also conducted a preliminary analysis of correlations between sructural probabilities of default for the firms in our database. Our results indicate that there are substantial correlations in the studied data.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by CIRPEE in its series Cahiers de recherche with number 0613.
Date of creation: 2006
Date of revision:
Default risk; public firm; structural model; reduced form model; hybrid model; probit model; Toronto Stock Exchange; correlations between default probabilities;
Other versions of this item:
- Georges Dionne & Sadok Laajimi & Sofiane Mejri & Madalina Petrescu, 2006. "Estimation of the Default Risk of Publicly Traded Canadian Companies," Working Papers 06-28, Bank of Canada.
- G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
- G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
- G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
- G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ACC-2006-05-13 (Accounting & Auditing)
- NEP-ALL-2006-05-13 (All new papers)
- NEP-BEC-2006-05-13 (Business Economics)
- NEP-CFN-2006-05-13 (Corporate Finance)
- NEP-FMK-2006-05-13 (Financial Markets)
- NEP-RMG-2006-05-13 (Risk Management)
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