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Does the PPP need the UIP?

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Author Info
Rodolfo Helg () (Cattaneo University (LIUC))
Massimiliano Serati () (Cattaneo University (LIUC))

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Abstract

In this paper we focus on the post Bretton Woods period and analyze whether a PPP relationship is accepted by the data for Italy, United States and Germany. We adopt a multivariate system approach in which, initially, we test for cointegration and then we try to identify a cointegration space in which we have the PPP relationship (the Johansen approach). The studies that have adopted this approach have always rejected the PPP in favour of a long run relationship between the real exchange rate and the interest rate differential. On the contrary, our conclusions are in favour of the PPP for all the cases considered when we allow for a structural break in the data. We arrive to this conclusion, after having identified the cointegration space in two different ways: one in which we have the PPP as a cointegrated vector and one in which the real exchange rate plus the interest rate differential is a cointegrated vector. Adopting a dominance criterion we choose the former identification.

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Paper provided by Cattaneo University (LIUC) in its series LIUC Papers in Economics with number 30.

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Length: 15 pages
Date of creation: May 1996
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Handle: RePEc:liu:liucec:30

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  7. Shang-Jin Wei & David C. Parsley, 1995. "Purchasing Power Disparity During the Floating Rate Period: Exchange Rate Volatility, Trade Barriers and Other Culprits," NBER Working Papers 5032, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Kalyvitis, Sarantis & Pittis, Nikitas, 2001. "Testing for PPP and UIP in an FIML framework: Some evidence for Germany and Japan," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 637-650, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  32. Pollak, Robert A. & Wales, Terence J., 1991. "The likelihood dominance criterion : A new approach to model selection," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2-3), pages 227-242, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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