IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/lie/dpaper/25.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

ECB Communication: What Is It Telling Us?

Author

Listed:
  • Rokas Kaminskas

    (Bank of Lithuania, ISM University of Management and Economics)

  • Modestas Stukas

    (Bank of Lithuania)

  • Linas Jurksas

    (Bank of Lithuania, Vilnius University)

Abstract

This paper examines changing ECB communication and how it has impacted euro area financial markets over the past two decades. We applied a combination of topic modelling and sentiment analysis for over 2000 public ECB Executive Board member speeches, as well as over 200 ECB press conferences. Topic analysis revealed that the ECB’s main focus has shifted from strategy and objectives, at the inception of the euro area, to various policy actions during the global financial crisis and, more recently, to instruments and economic developments. Sentiment analysis showed an expected trend of a more negative communication tone during periods of turmoil and a gradual shift to a more dovish monetary policy tone over time. Regression analysis revealed that sentiment indices had the expected impact on financial market indicators, while press conferences showed substantially stronger effects than speeches.

Suggested Citation

  • Rokas Kaminskas & Modestas Stukas & Linas Jurksas, 2021. "ECB Communication: What Is It Telling Us?," Bank of Lithuania Discussion Paper Series 25, Bank of Lithuania.
    • Handle: RePEc:lie:dpaper:25
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.lb.lt/uploads/publications/docs/29574_755293c0177dc0b7f8f0437f4892bf36.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Altavilla, Carlo & Brugnolini, Luca & Gürkaynak, Refet S. & Motto, Roberto & Ragusa, Giuseppe, 2019. "Measuring euro area monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 162-179.
    2. Picault, Matthieu & Renault, Thomas, 2017. "Words are not all created equal: A new measure of ECB communication," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 136-156.
    3. Hansen, Stephen & McMahon, Michael & Tong, Matthew, 2019. "The long-run information effect of central bank communication," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 185-202.
    4. Andrade, Philippe & Ferroni, Filippo, 2021. "Delphic and odyssean monetary policy shocks: Evidence from the euro area," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 816-832.
    5. Matthieu Picault & Thomas Renault, 2017. "Words are not all created equal: A new measure of ECB communication," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-03205121, HAL.
    6. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2020_012 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Martin Baumgaertner & Johannes Zahner, 2021. "Whatever it takes to understand a central banker - Embedding their words using neural networks," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202130, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    2. Parle, Conor, 2022. "The financial market impact of ECB monetary policy press conferences — A text based approach," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    3. Möller, Rouven & Reichmann, Doron, 2021. "ECB language and stock returns – A textual analysis of ECB press conferences," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 590-604.
    4. Jonne Lehtimäki & Marianne Palmu, 2022. "Who Should You Listen to in a Crisis? Differences in Communication of Central Bank Policymakers," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 11(3), pages 33-57.
    5. Christopher S. Sutherland, 2020. "Forward Guidance and Expectation Formation: A Narrative Approach," Staff Working Papers 20-40, Bank of Canada.
    6. Baranowski, Paweł & Doryń, Wirginia & Łyziak, Tomasz & Stanisławska, Ewa, 2021. "Words and deeds in managing expectations: Empirical evidence from an inflation targeting economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 49-67.
    7. Tillmann, Peter, 2021. "Financial markets and dissent in the ECB’s Governing Council," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    8. Hayo, Bernd & Henseler, Kai & Steffen Rapp, Marc & Zahner, Johannes, 2022. "Complexity of ECB communication and financial market trading," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    9. Martin T. Bohl & Dimitrios Kanelis & Pierre L. Siklos, 2022. "How Central Bank Mandates Influence Content and Tone of Communication Over Time," CQE Working Papers 9622, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
    10. Linas Jurkšas & Rokas Kaminskas, 2023. "ECB monetary policy communication: does it move euro area yields?," Bank of Lithuania Discussion Paper Series 29, Bank of Lithuania.
    11. Dimitrios Kanelis & Pierre L. Siklos, 2022. "Emotion in Euro Area Monetary Policy Communication and Bond Yields: The Draghi Era," CQE Working Papers 10322, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
    12. Connor M. Brennan & Margaret M. Jacobson & Christian Matthes & Todd B. Walker, 2024. "Monetary Policy Shocks: Data or Methods?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-011, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Donato Masciandaro & Oana Peia & Davide Romelli, 2022. "Central Bank Communication and Social Media: From Silence to Twitter," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 22187, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    14. Justyna Klejdysz & Robin L. Lumsdaine, 2023. "Shifts in ECB Communication: A Textual Analysis of the Press Conference," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 19(2), pages 473-542, June.
    15. Valerio Astuti & Alessio Ciarlone & Alberto Coco, 2022. "The role of central bank communication in inflation-targeting Eastern European emerging economies," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1381, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    16. Jung, Alexander, 2023. "Are monetary policy shocks causal to bank health? Evidence from the euro area," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    17. Fernandes, Cecilia Melo, 2021. "ECB communication as a stabilization and coordination device: evidence from ex-ante inflation uncertainty," Working Paper Series 2582, European Central Bank.
    18. Mario Gonzalez and Raul Cruz Tadle & Raul Cruz Tadle, 2022. "Monetary policy press releases: an international comparison," BIS Working Papers 1023, Bank for International Settlements.
    19. Callan Windsor, 2021. "The Intellectual Ideas Inside Central Banks: What'S Changed (Or Not) Since The Crisis?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 539-565, April.
    20. Luca Alfieri & Mustafa Hakan Eratalay & Darya Lapitskaya & Rajesh Sharma, 2022. "THE EFFECTS OF THE ECB COMMUNICATIONS ON FINANCIAL MARKETS BEFORE AND DURING COVID-19 PANDEMICAbstract:The paper aims to estimate the effects of the European Central Bank communications on the sectora," University of Tartu - Faculty of Economics and Business Administration Working Paper Series 140, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, University of Tartu (Estonia).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ECB; speeches; press conferences; text analysis; sentiments; financial markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C80 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - General
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:lie:dpaper:25. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Aurelija Proskute (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/lbanklt.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.