Testing the Conditional Mean Function of Autoregressive Conditional Duration Models
AbstractThis paper proposes a dynamic proportional hazard (PH) model with non-specified baseline hazard for the modelling of autoregressive duration processes. A categorization of the durations allows us to reformulate the PH model as an ordered response model based on extreme value distributed errors. In order to capture persistent serial dependence in the duration process, we extend the model by an observation driven ARMA dynamic based on generalized errors. We illustrate the maximum likelihood estimation of both the model parameters and discrete points of the underlying unspecified baseline survivor function. The dynamic properties of the model as well as an assessment of the estimation quality is investigated in a Monte Carlo study. It is illustrated that the model is a useful approach to estimate conditional failure probabilities based on (persistent) serial dependent duration data which might be subject to censoring structures. In an empirical study based on financial transaction data we present an application of the model to estimate conditional asset price change probabilities. Evaluating the forecasting properties of the model, it is shown that the proposed approach is a promising competitor to well-established ACD type models.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. Finance Research Unit in its series FRU Working Papers with number 2006/06.
Length: 21 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2006
Date of revision:
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augmented ACD models; semiparametric ACD models; news impact function; Lagrange multiplier tests;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2006-12-22 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2006-12-22 (Econometrics)
- NEP-ETS-2006-12-22 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-MST-2006-12-22 (Market Microstructure)
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- BAUWENS, Luc & HAUTSCH, Nikolaus, 2003. "Dynamic latent factor models for intensity processes," CORE Discussion Papers 2003103, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
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