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A Goodness-of-Fit Test for a Class of Autoregressive Conditional Duration Models

Author

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  • Indeewara Perera
  • Javier Hidalgo
  • Mervyn J. Silvapulle

Abstract

This article develops a method for testing the goodness-of-fit of a given parametric autoregressive conditional duration model against unspecified nonparametric alternatives. The test statistics are functions of the residuals corresponding to the quasi maximum likelihood estimate of the given parametric model, and are easy to compute. The limiting distributions of the test statistics are not free from nuisance parameters. Hence, critical values cannot be tabulated for general use. A bootstrap procedure is proposed to implement the tests, and its asymptotic validity is established. The finite sample performances of the proposed tests and several other competing ones in the literature, were compared using a simulation study. The tests proposed in this article performed well consistently throughout, and they were either the best or close to the best. None of the tests performed uniformly the best. The tests are illustrated using an empirical example.

Suggested Citation

  • Indeewara Perera & Javier Hidalgo & Mervyn J. Silvapulle, 2016. "A Goodness-of-Fit Test for a Class of Autoregressive Conditional Duration Models," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(6), pages 1111-1141, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:emetrv:v:35:y:2016:i:6:p:1111-1141
    DOI: 10.1080/07474938.2014.975644
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dmitri Koulikov, 2002. "Modeling Sequences of Long Memory Positive Weakly Stationary Random Variables," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 493, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    2. Nikolaus Hautsch, 2006. "Testing the Conditional Mean Function of Autoregressive Conditional Duration Models," FRU Working Papers 2006/06, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. Finance Research Unit.
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    Cited by:

    1. Giuseppe Cavaliere & Indeewara Perera & Anders Rahbek, 2021. "Specification tests for GARCH processes," Papers 2105.14081, arXiv.org.
    2. Simos G. Meintanis & Bojana Milošević & Marko Obradović, 2020. "Goodness-of-fit tests in conditional duration models," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 61(1), pages 123-140, February.
    3. Perera, Indeewara & Silvapulle, Mervyn J., 2021. "Bootstrap based probability forecasting in multiplicative error models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 221(1), pages 1-24.
    4. Cavaliere, Giuseppe & Lu, Ye & Rahbek, Anders & Stærk-Østergaard, Jacob, 2023. "Bootstrap inference for Hawkes and general point processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(1), pages 133-165.
    5. Hira L. Koul & Indeewara Perera & Narayana Balakrishna, 2023. "A class of Minimum Distance Estimators in Markovian Multiplicative Error Models," Sankhya B: The Indian Journal of Statistics, Springer;Indian Statistical Institute, vol. 85(1), pages 87-115, May.
    6. Mariano González-Sánchez & Eva M. Ibáñez Jiménez & Ana I. Segovia San Juan, 2021. "Market and Liquidity Risks Using Transaction-by-Transaction Information," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(14), pages 1-14, July.
    7. Perera, Indeewara & Koul, Hira L., 2017. "Fitting a two phase threshold multiplicative error model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 197(2), pages 348-367.
    8. Fabrizio Cipollini & Giampiero M. Gallo, 2021. "Multiplicative Error Models: 20 years on," Papers 2107.05923, arXiv.org.
    9. Ke, Rui & Lu, Wanbo & Jia, Jing, 2021. "Evaluating multiplicative error models: A residual-based approach," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).

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