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Pricing of S&P 100 Index Options Based On Garch Volatility Estimates

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Author Info
Ayla Ogus () (Department of Economics, Izmir University of Economics)

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Abstract

This paper is a contribution to the vast literature on the inefficiency in the index options markets. Previous research has found that trading based on implied volatility forecasts do not generate positive profits for the S&P 500 index options but GARCH volatility forecasts do. Trading based on implied volatility forecasts for the S&P 100 index options also fail to generate profits in excess of transaction costs. This paper shows that trading based on GARCH volatility forecast generates profits in excess of transaction costs for the S&P 100 index options hence there is systematic mispricing in the S&P index options markets. GARCH models fair well due to their flexibility to incorporate asymmetric and nonlinear volatility effects. Improved pricing models should work as well or better.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Izmir University of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 0201.

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Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:izm:wpaper:0201

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Web page: http://eco.ieu.edu.tr
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Related research
Keywords: GARCH; S&P100; index options;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Bent Jesper Christensen & Charlotte Strunk Hansen, 2002. "New evidence on the implied-realized volatility relation," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 187-205, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Evnine, Jeremy & Rudd, Andrew, 1985. " Index Options: The Early Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 743-56, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Galai, Dan, 1977. "Tests of Market Efficiency of the Chicago Board Options Exchange," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 50(2), pages 167-97, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Hull, John C & White, Alan D, 1987. " The Pricing of Options on Assets with Stochastic Volatilities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 281-300, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Harvey, Campbell R & Whaley, Robert E, 1991. " S&P 100 Index Option Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(4), pages 1251-61, September.
  7. Day, Theodore E. & Lewis, Craig M., 1988. "The behavior of the volatility implicit in the prices of stock index options," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 103-122, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Duan, Jin-Chuan & Zhang, Hua, 2001. "Pricing Hang Seng Index options around the Asian financial crisis - A GARCH approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(11), pages 1989-2014, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Chou, Ray Yeutien, 1988. "Volatility Persistence and Stock Valuations: Some Empirical Evidence Using Garch," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(4), pages 279-94, October-D. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Kamara, Avraham & Miller, Thomas W., 1995. "Daily and Intradaily Tests of European Put-Call Parity," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(04), pages 519-539, December. [Downloadable!]
  12. Ackert, Lucy F. & Tian, Yisong S., 2001. "Efficiency in index options markets and trading in stock baskets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(9), pages 1607-1634, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Jorion, Philippe, 1995. " Predicting Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 507-28, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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