IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/iza/izasps/sp99.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Die Bedeutung individuellen Verhaltens über den Jahreswechsel für die Weiterentwicklung der Covid-19-Pandemie in Deutschland

Author

Listed:
  • Gabler, Janos

    (IZA)

  • Raabe, Tobias

    (quantilope)

  • Röhrl, Klara

    (University of Bonn)

  • Gaudecker, Hans-Martin von

    (University of Bonn)

Abstract

Wir nutzen ein neues Modell, um den Verlauf der Covid-19-Pandemie über die Weihnachtstage und den Jahreswechsel vorherzusagen. Während die weitgehende Schließung der Betriebe neben den verlängerten Schulferien die Infektionszahlen drücken, werden Reiseaktivitäten und Weihnachtsfeiern zu einem starken Anstieg führen. Unsere Ergebnisse geben wenig Anlass zur Hoffnung, dass die Infektionszahlen über die Weihnachtstage und den Jahreswechsel nennenswert zurückgehen. Eher dürfte das Gegenteil der Fall sein. Einen großen Effekt kann die private Kontaktnachverfolgung ausmachen. Wenn alle Teilnehmer von Weihnachtsfeierlichkeiten über einen später auftretenden Infektionsverdacht (Symptome oder positiver Test) umgehend benachrichtigt werden und ihre Kontakte reduzieren, könnten mehrere hunderttausend Infektionen in der ersten Januarhälfte vermieden werden.

Suggested Citation

  • Gabler, Janos & Raabe, Tobias & Röhrl, Klara & Gaudecker, Hans-Martin von, 2020. "Die Bedeutung individuellen Verhaltens über den Jahreswechsel für die Weiterentwicklung der Covid-19-Pandemie in Deutschland," IZA Standpunkte 99, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izasps:sp99
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://docs.iza.org/sp99.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Silva, Petrônio C.L. & Batista, Paulo V.C. & Lima, Hélder S. & Alves, Marcos A. & Guimarães, Frederico G. & Silva, Rodrigo C.P., 2020. "COVID-ABS: An agent-based model of COVID-19 epidemic to simulate health and economic effects of social distancing interventions," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    2. Gabler, Janos & Raabe, Tobias & Röhrl, Klara, 2020. "People Meet People: A Microlevel Approach to Predicting the Effect of Policies on the Spread of COVID-19," IZA Discussion Papers 13899, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gabler, Janos & Raabe, Tobias & Röhrl, Klara & Gaudecker, Hans-Martin von, 2021. "Der Effekt von Homeoffice auf die Entwicklung der Covid-19-Pandemie in Deutschland," IZA Standpunkte 100, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Shen, Meng & Li, Xiang & Lu, Yujie & Cui, Qingbin & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2021. "Personality-based normative feedback intervention for energy conservation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    3. Mellacher, Patrick, 2020. "COVID-Town: An Integrated Economic-Epidemiological Agent-Based Model," MPRA Paper 103661, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Almiala, Into & Aalto, Henrik & Kuikka, Vesa, 2023. "Influence spreading model for partial breakthrough effects on complex networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 630(C).
    5. Abiodun Olusola Omotayo & Peter Tshepiso Ndhlovu & Seleke Christopher Tshwene & Kehinde Oluseyi Olagunju & Adeyemi Oladapo Aremu, 2021. "Determinants of Household Income and Willingness to Pay for Indigenous Plants in North West Province, South Africa: A Two-Stage Heckman Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-18, May.
    6. Patrick Mellacher, 2022. "Endogenous viral mutations, evolutionary selection, and containment policy design," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 17(3), pages 801-825, July.
    7. Barraza, Néstor Ruben & Pena, Gabriel & Moreno, Verónica, 2020. "A non-homogeneous Markov early epidemic growth dynamics model. Application to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    8. Dedi I. Inan & Ghassan Beydoun & Siti Hajar Othman & Biswajeet Pradhan & Simon Opper, 2022. "Developing Reusable COVID-19 Disaster Management Plans Using Agent-Based Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-22, June.
    9. Rahman, Mati ur & Ahmad, Saeed & Matoog, R.T. & Alshehri, Nawal A. & Khan, Tahir, 2021. "Study on the mathematical modelling of COVID-19 with Caputo-Fabrizio operator," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    10. Patrick Urrutia & David Wren & Chrysafis Vogiatzis & Ruriko Yoshida, 2022. "SARS-CoV-2 Dissemination Using a Network of the US Counties," SN Operations Research Forum, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 1-23, June.
    11. Mattia Pellegrino & Gianfranco Lombardo & Stefano Cagnoni & Agostino Poggi, 2022. "High-Performance Computing and ABMS for High-Resolution COVID-19 Spreading Simulation," Future Internet, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-23, March.
    12. Chiba, Asako, 2020. "Modeling the effects of contact-tracing apps on the spread of the coronavirus disease: mechanisms, conditions, and efficiency," MPRA Paper 103299, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Fattahi, Mohammad & Keyvanshokooh, Esmaeil & Kannan, Devika & Govindan, Kannan, 2023. "Resource planning strategies for healthcare systems during a pandemic," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 304(1), pages 192-206.
    14. Moritz Kersting & Andreas Bossert & Leif Sörensen & Benjamin Wacker & Jan Chr. Schlüter, 2021. "Predicting effectiveness of countermeasures during the COVID-19 outbreak in South Africa using agent-based simulation," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 8(1), pages 1-15, December.
    15. Zachariah Sinkala & Vajira Manathunga & Bichaka Fayissa, 2022. "An Epidemic Compartment Model for Economic Policy Directions for Managing Future Pandemic," Papers 2202.05374, arXiv.org.
    16. Fernandes, Leonardo H.S. & Silva, José W.L. & de Araujo, Fernando H.A., 2022. "Multifractal risk measures by Macroeconophysics perspective: The case of Brazilian inflation dynamics," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    17. Xu, Yuan-Hao & Wang, Hao-Jie & Lu, Zhong-Wen & Hu, Mao-Bin, 2023. "Impact of awareness dissemination on epidemic reaction–diffusion in multiplex networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 621(C).
    18. Daniel K Sewell & Aaron Miller & for the CDC MInD-Healthcare Program, 2020. "Simulation-free estimation of an individual-based SEIR model for evaluating nonpharmaceutical interventions with an application to COVID-19 in the District of Columbia," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(11), pages 1-18, November.
    19. Ali M. Al-Shaery & Bilal Hejase & Abdessamad Tridane & Norah S. Farooqi & Hamad Al Jassmi, 2021. "Agent-Based Modeling of the Hajj Rituals with the Possible Spread of COVID-19," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-13, June.
    20. Yuan, Yiran & Li, Ning, 2022. "Optimal control and cost-effectiveness analysis for a COVID-19 model with individual protection awareness," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 603(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; agent based simulation model; public health measures;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iza:izasps:sp99. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Holger Hinte (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/izaaade.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.