IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2011-099.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Did Export Diversification Soften the Impact of the Global Financial Crisis?

Author

Listed:
  • Rafael Romeu
  • Mr. Nelson Camanho da Costa Neto

Abstract

This study considers the role of export diversification in determining trade outcomes during the global financial crisis. The impact of export diversification (or concentration) is measured by assessing three different dimensions of specialization. First, concentration by geographic destination is considered; that is, whether the bulk of exports from a country go to many or few trading partners. Second, industry/sectoral concentration is considered; that is, whether a country’s exports are scattered across many industries and sectors, or concentrated in just a few. Third, product concentration is considered; that is, whether countries produce many products within their export sectors or just a few. The workhorse gravity trade model is adapted with trade diversification as an additional trade cost, and the model solution is empirically tested on a dataset containing over 500 thousand observations for Latin America. Industry and product concentration are found to significantly affect the resilience of Latin American countries’ trade during the global financial crisis - increasing the diversity of both export sectors and export products within sectors by one standard deviation reduces the quarterly decline in exports by approximately 4.7 percent. Diversifying exports across many different trading partners is not found to significantly affect outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Rafael Romeu & Mr. Nelson Camanho da Costa Neto, 2011. "Did Export Diversification Soften the Impact of the Global Financial Crisis?," IMF Working Papers 2011/099, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2011/099
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=24821
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Feenstra, Robert & Hiau Looi Kee, 2004. "Export variety and country productivity," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3412, The World Bank.
    2. Krugman, Paul R., 1979. "Increasing returns, monopolistic competition, and international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 469-479, November.
    3. Raymond Vernon, 1966. "International Investment and International Trade in the Product Cycle," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 80(2), pages 190-207.
    4. Grossman, Gene M. & Helpman, Elhanan, 1991. "Trade, knowledge spillovers, and growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(2-3), pages 517-526, April.
    5. Feenstra, Robert & Kee, Hiau Looi, 2008. "Export variety and country productivity: Estimating the monopolistic competition model with endogenous productivity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 500-518, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Evžen Kočenda & Karen Poghosyan, 2018. "Export Sophistication: A Dynamic Panel Data Approach," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(12), pages 2799-2814, September.
    2. Lectard, Pauline & Rougier, Eric, 2018. "Can Developing Countries Gain from Defying Comparative Advantage? Distance to Comparative Advantage, Export Diversification and Sophistication, and the Dynamics of Specialization," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 90-110.
    3. Jinsoo Lee & Bok-Keun Yu, 2018. "The Effects of Export Diversification on Macroeconomic Stabilization : Evidence from Korea," Working Papers 2018-25, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    4. Brice Kamguia & Sosson Tadadjeu & Clovis Miamo & Henri Njangang, 2022. "Does foreign aid impede economic complexity in developing countries?," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 169, pages 71-88.
    5. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2021. "Development aid and services export diversification," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 125-156, February.
    6. Aadil Nakhoda, 2013. "Bank Competition and Export Diversification," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 2013/12, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    7. Ignacio Rosal, 2018. "Power laws in EU country exports," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 45(2), pages 311-337, May.
    8. Hinlo, Jennifer E. & Arranguez, Grace Ivy S., 2017. "Export Geographical Diversification and Economic Growth Among ASEAN Countries," MPRA Paper 81333, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Kornkarun Cheewatrakoolpong & Somprawin Manprasert, 2012. "Trade concentration and crisis spillover: Case study of transmission of the supprime crisis to Thailand," Working Papers 11212, Asia-Pacific Research and Training Network on Trade (ARTNeT), an initiative of UNESCAP and IDRC, Canada..
    10. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2020. "Aid for Trade flows and Poverty Reduction in Recipient-Countries," EconStor Preprints 213807, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    11. Kornkarun Cheewatrakoolpong & Somprawin Manprasert, 2015. "Trade Diversification and Crisis Transmission: A Case Study of Thailand," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 29(4), pages 385-408, December.
    12. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2020. "Export product diversification and tax performance quality in developing countries," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 849-876, October.
    13. Ignacio del Rosal, 2019. "Export Diversification And Export Performance By Destination Country," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(1), pages 58-74, January.
    14. Semih Karacan & Özge Korkmaz, 2022. "Turkish Exports Before and After the 2001 Financial Crisis: A Panel Gravity Model," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 57(1), pages 27-40, February.
    15. Oubeid Rahmouni, 2020. "The Impact of the Geographical Diversification of Saudi Exports: An Intensive and Extensive Margin Approach," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 10(10), pages 1077-1087, October.
    16. Ons Abbes & Pr. Abdessatar Ati & Dr. Fabienne Boudier, 2019. "Specialization of Emerging Countries and Economic Stability," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 9(1), pages 200-227, March.
    17. Pahl, Stefan & Brandi, Clara & Schwab, Jakob & Stender, Frederik, 2020. "Cling together, swing together: The contagious effects of COVID-19 on developing countries through global value chains," IDOS Discussion Papers 21/2020, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).
    18. Evžen Kočenda & Karen Poghosyan, 2018. "Export Sophistication: A Dynamic Panel Data Approach," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(12), pages 2799-2814, September.
    19. Evzen Kocenda & Karen Poghosyan, 2017. "Export sophistication: A dynamic panel data approach," Working Papers 980, Central Bank of the Republic of Armenia.
    20. Dungey, Mardi & Khan, Faisal & Raghavan, Mala, 2018. "International trade and the transmission of shocks: The case of ASEAN-4 and NIE-4 economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 109-121.
    21. Xuefeng, Qian & Yaşar, Mahmut, 2016. "Export Market Diversification and Firm Productivity: Evidence from a Large Developing Country," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 28-47.
    22. Lee, Jinsoo & Yu, Bok-Keun, 2019. "The Effects of Export Diversification on Macroeconomic Stabilization: Evidence from Korea," KDI Journal of Economic Policy, Korea Development Institute (KDI), vol. 41(1), pages 1-14.
    23. Stefan Pahl & Clara Brandi & Jakob Schwab & Frederik Stender, 2022. "Cling together, swing together: The contagious effects of COVID‐19 on developing countries through global value chains," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(2), pages 539-560, February.
    24. International Monetary Fund, 2012. "Islamic Republic of Mauritania: Selected Issues Paper," IMF Staff Country Reports 2012/249, International Monetary Fund.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Audra Wormald & Rajshree Agarwal & Serguey Braguinsky & Sonali K. Shah, 2021. "David overshadows Goliath: Specializing in generality for internationalization in the global mobile money industry," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(8), pages 1459-1489, August.
    2. Campbell, Douglas L., 2010. "History, culture, and trade: a dynamic gravity approach," MPRA Paper 24014, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Felix Groba & Jing Cao, 2015. "Chinese Renewable Energy Technology Exports: The Role of Policy, Innovation and Markets," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 60(2), pages 243-283, February.
    4. Sheng, Liugang & Yang, Dennis Tao, 2016. "Expanding export variety: The role of institutional reforms in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 45-58.
    5. Audra Wormald & Sonali K. Shah & Serguey Braguinsky & Rajshree Agarwal, 2023. "Pioneering digital platform ecosystems: The role of aligned capabilities and motives in shaping key choices and performance outcomes," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(7), pages 1653-1697, July.
    6. Sheng, Liugang & Yang, Dennis T., 2011. "Speeding Up the Product Cycle: The Role of Host Country Reforms," IZA Discussion Papers 6054, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Hamid Sepehrdoust & Mohsen Tartar & Razieh Davarikish, 2021. "Does Scientific Productivity Stimulate Intensified Technology Exports in Developing Economies," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 12(4), pages 2111-2135, December.
    8. Jani Bekő, 2003. "Causality between exports and economic growth: empirical estimates for slovenia," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2003(2), pages 169-186.
    9. Paas, Tiiu, 2002. "Gravity Approach for Exploring Baltic Sea Regional Integration in the Field of International Trade," Discussion Paper Series 26379, Hamburg Institute of International Economics.
    10. Dariusz Kotlewski, 2022. "Przesłanki za wykorzystaniem rachunkowości wzrostu gospodarczego w badaniu specjalizacji regionalnych," Ekonomista, Polskie Towarzystwo Ekonomiczne, issue 2, pages 235-258.
    11. Antonio Navas & Davide Sala, 2015. "Innovation and Trade Policy Coordination: The Role of Firm Heterogeneity," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(8), pages 1205-1224, August.
    12. Ardelean, Adina & Lugovskyy, Volodymyr, 2010. "Domestic productivity and variety gains from trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 280-291, March.
    13. Natalia Konakhina, 2020. "Foreign trade activity evaluation of Russian Arctic," International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, Springer;The Society for Reliability, Engineering Quality and Operations Management (SREQOM),India, and Division of Operation and Maintenance, Lulea University of Technology, Sweden, vol. 11(1), pages 63-68, May.
    14. Peter K. Schott, 2001. "Do Rich and Poor Countries Specialize in a Different Mix of Goods? Evidence from Product-Level US Trade Data," NBER Working Papers 8492, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Pedro Antonio Martín Cervantes & Nuria Rueda López & Salvador Cruz Rambaud, 2020. "The Effect of Globalization on Economic Development Indicators: An Inter-Regional Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-18, March.
    16. Magdalena Olczyk, 2016. "International Competitiveness in the Economics Literature: A Bibliometric Study," Athens Journal of Business & Economics, Athens Institute for Education and Research (ATINER), vol. 2(4), pages 375-388, October.
    17. Saon Ray, 2014. "What Explains the Productivity Decline in Manufacturing in the Nineties in India?," Working Papers id:6280, eSocialSciences.
    18. Trinh, Long Q., 2016. "Dynamics of Innovation and Internationalization among Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises in Viet Nam," ADBI Working Papers 580, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    19. Seref Saygili & Cengiz Cihan & Cihan Yalcin & Turknur Hamsici, 2010. "Turkiye Imalat Sanayiin Ithalat Yapisi," Working Papers 1002, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    20. Heiland, Inga & Kohler, Wilhelm, 2022. "Heterogeneous workers, trade, and migration," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; trading partner;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2011/099. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.