IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2010-297.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Macroeconomic Effects of Public Pension Reforms

Author

Listed:
  • Ms. Joana Pereira
  • Mr. Philippe D Karam
  • Mr. Dirk V Muir
  • Ms. Anita Tuladhar

Abstract

The paper explores the macroeconomic effects of three public pension reforms, namely an increase in retirement age, a reduction in benefits and an increase in contribution rates. Using a five-region version of the IMF‘s Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal model (GIMF), we find that public pension reforms can have a positive effect on growth in both the short run, propelled by rising consumption, and in the long run, due to lower government debt crowding in higher investment. We also find that a reform action undertaken cooperatively by all regions results in larger output effects, reflecting stronger capital accumulation due to higher world savings. An increase in the retirement age reform yields the strongest impact in the short run, due to the demand effects of higher labor income and in the long run because of supply effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Ms. Joana Pereira & Mr. Philippe D Karam & Mr. Dirk V Muir & Ms. Anita Tuladhar, 2010. "Macroeconomic Effects of Public Pension Reforms," IMF Working Papers 2010/297, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2010/297
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=24536
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Boris Cournède & Frédéric Gonand, 2006. "Restoring Fiscal Sustainability in the Euro Area: Raise Taxes or Curb Spending?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 520, OECD Publishing.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Aida Caldera Sánchez & Alain de Serres & Naomitsu Yashiro, 2017. "Reforming in a Difficult Macroeconomic Context: A Review of Issues and Recent Literature," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(01), pages 1-41, February.
    2. Kenichiro Kashiwase & Mr. Masahiro Nozaki & Kiichi Tokuoka, 2012. "Pension Reforms in Japan," IMF Working Papers 2012/285, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Mr. Seok G Park, 2012. "Quantifying Impact of Aging Population on Fiscal Space," IMF Working Papers 2012/164, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Baksa, Daniel & Munkacsi, Zsuzsa & Nerlich, Carolin, 2020. "A framework for assessing the costs of pension reform reversals," Working Paper Series 2396, European Central Bank.
    5. Augusto Ruperez Micola & Francisco Penaranda, 2011. "On the divers of commodity co-movement: Evidence from biofuels," DEM Discussion Paper Series 11-14, Department of Economics at the University of Luxembourg.
    6. Abdul Hadi & Emese Bruder & Widhayani Puri Setioningtyas, 2022. "Comparison of the World’s Best Pension Systems: The Lesson for Indonesia," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-17, September.
    7. Kiichi Tokuoka, 2012. "Intergenerational Implications of Fiscal Consolidation in Japan," IMF Working Papers 2012/197, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Masuch, Klaus & Anderton, Robert & Setzer, Ralph & Benalal, Nicholai, 2018. "Structural policies in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 210, European Central Bank.
    9. Davide Bazzana, 2020. "Ageing population and pension system sustainability: reforms and redistributive implications," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 37(3), pages 971-992, October.
    10. Mr. Dirk V Muir & Miss Anke Weber, 2013. "Fiscal Multipliers in Bulgaria: Low But Still Relevant," IMF Working Papers 2013/049, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Frank Eich & Mauricio Soto & Ms. Charleen A Gust, 2012. "Reforming the Public Pension System in the Russian Federation," IMF Working Papers 2012/201, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Aaron G Grech, "undated". "The possible impact of pension age changes on Malta’s potential output," CBM Policy Papers PP/01/2016, Central Bank of Malta.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rob Euwals & Marike Knoef & Daniel Vuuren, 2011. "The trend in female labour force participation: what can be expected for the future?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 40(3), pages 729-753, May.
    2. Schlicht, Ekkehart, 2006. "VC - A Method For Estimating Time-Varying Coefficients in Linear Models," Discussion Papers in Economics 61656, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    3. Gábor Kutasi, 2017. "Unsustainable Public Debt in a European Fiscal Union?," Revista Finanzas y Politica Economica, Universidad Católica de Colombia, vol. 9(1), pages 25-39, February.
    4. Luca Agnello & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2012. "Fiscall Adjustments and Income Inequality:A First Assessment," NIPE Working Papers 19/2012, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    5. Miriam Steurer, 2009. "Fertility Decisions and the Sustainability of Defined Benefit Pay-as-You-Go Pension Systems," Discussion Papers 2009-06, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    6. Andersen, Torben M, 2008. "Fiscal Sustainability and Demographics - Should We Save or Work More?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7044, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Boone, Brecht & Quaghebeur, Ewoud, 2018. "Beyond rational expectations: The effects of heuristic switching in an Overlapping Generations model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 349-364.
    8. Kenichiro Kashiwase & Mr. Masahiro Nozaki & Kiichi Tokuoka, 2012. "Pension Reforms in Japan," IMF Working Papers 2012/285, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Brecht Boone & Freddy Heylen, 2019. "Cross‐Country Differences in Unemployment: Fiscal Policy, Unions, and Household Preferences in General Equilibrium," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 121(3), pages 1270-1302, July.
    10. Willem DEVRIENDT & Freddy HEYLEN, 2020. "Macroeconomic and Distributional Effects of Demographic Change in an Open Economy - The Case of Belgium," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 86(1), pages 87-124, March.
    11. Rajmund MIRDALA, 2016. "Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks in the Euro Area Lessons Learned from Fiscal Consolidation," Journal of Advanced Research in Law and Economics, ASERS Publishing, vol. 7(8), pages 2236-2276.
    12. T. Buyse & F. Heylen, 2012. "Leaving the empirical (battle)ground: Output and welfare effects of fiscal consolidation in general equilibrium," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 12/826, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    13. Daniel Vuuren, 2014. "Flexible Retirement," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(3), pages 573-593, July.
    14. Mirdala, Rajmund & Kameník, Martin, 2017. "Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks in CE3 Countries (TVAR Approach)," MPRA Paper 79918, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Daniel van Vuuren, 2011. "Flexible Retirement," CPB Discussion Paper 174, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    16. Boris Cournède & Antoine Goujard & Álvaro Pina, 2013. "How to Achieve Growth- and Equity-friendly Fiscal Consolidation?: A Proposed Methodology for Instrument Choice with an Illustrative Application to OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1088, OECD Publishing.
    17. Frédéric Gonand, 2006. "Une politique budgétaire keynésienne neutralisant les stabilisateurs automatiques en haut de cycle : le cas de la France en 2000-2001," Working Papers hal-00243039, HAL.
    18. Rob Euwals & Marike Knoef & Daniel Vuuren, 2011. "The trend in female labour force participation: what can be expected for the future?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 40(3), pages 729-753, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2010/297. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.