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Oil Windfalls in Ghana: A DSGE Approach

Author

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  • Jihad Dagher
  • Jan Gottschalk
  • Mr. Rafael A Portillo

Abstract

We use a calibrated multi-sector DSGE model to analyze the likely impact of oil windfalls on the Ghanaian economy, under alternative fiscal and monetary policy responses. We distinguish between the short-run impact, associated with demand-related pressures, and the medium run impact on competitiveness and growth. The impact on inflation and the real exchange rate could be moderate, especially if the fiscal authorities smooth oil-related spending or increase public spending’s import content. However, a policy mix that results in both a fiscal expansion and the simultaneous accumulation of the foreign currency proceeds from oil as international reserves—to offset the real appreciation—would raise demand pressures and crowd-out the private sector. In the medium term, the negative impact on competitiveness—resulting from ”Dutch Disease” effects—could be small, provided public spending increases the stock of productive public capital. These findings highlight the role of different policy responses, and their interaction, for the macroeconomic impact of oil proceeds.

Suggested Citation

  • Jihad Dagher & Jan Gottschalk & Mr. Rafael A Portillo, 2010. "Oil Windfalls in Ghana: A DSGE Approach," IMF Working Papers 2010/116, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2010/116
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Hassan Dargahi & Mehdi Hadian, 2022. "Oil shocks, financial stability and implementing macroeconomics and macro‐prudential policies in an oil‐exporting economy," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 2481-2496, April.
    2. Algozhina, Aliya, 2022. "Monetary policy rule, exchange rate regime, and fiscal policy cyclicality in a developing oil economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    3. Semko Roman, 2013. "Optimal economic policy and oil prices shocks in Russia," EERC Working Paper Series 13/03e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    4. Romain Houssa & Jolan Mohimont & Chris Otrok, 2019. "A model for international spillovers to emerging markets," Working Paper Research 370, National Bank of Belgium.
    5. Huseynov, Salman & Ahmadov, Vugar, 2014. "Azərbaycan üzrə DSÜT modeli: qiymətləndirmə və proqnozlaşdırma [A DSGE model for Azerbaijan: estimation and forecasting]," MPRA Paper 78123, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Samuel Wills, 2013. "Optimal Monetary Responses to News of an Oil Discovery," OxCarre Working Papers 121, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    7. Dobronogov, Anton & Gelb, Alan & Saldanha, Fernando Brant, 2014. "How should donors respond to resource windfalls in poor countries ? from aid to insurance," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6952, The World Bank.
    8. Samuel Wills, 2012. "Optimal Monetary Responses to Oil Discoveries," Discussion Papers 1408, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM), revised Apr 2014.
    9. Fadia Al Hajj & Gilles Dufrénot & Kimiko Sugimoto & Romain Wolf, 2015. "Reactions to Shocks and Monetary Policy Regimes: Inflation Targeting Versus Flexible Currency Board in Sub-Saharan Africa," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 53(4), pages 237-271, December.
    10. Lahcen, Mohammed Ait, 2014. "DSGE models for developing economies: an application to Morocco," MPRA Paper 63404, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Senbeta, Sisay, 2011. "A small open economy New Keynesian model for a foreign exchange constrained economy," MPRA Paper 29996, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Senbeta, Sisay, 2011. "How applicable are the new keynesian DSGE models to a typical low-income economy?," MPRA Paper 30931, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Tsasa Vangu, Jean-Paul Kimbambu, 2014. "Diagnostic de la politique monétaire en Rép. Dém. Congo – Approche par l’Equilibre Général Dynamique Stochastique," Dynare Working Papers 38, CEPREMAP.
    14. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Dissou, Yazid & Go, Delfin S. & Robinson, Sherman, 2014. "Budget rules and resource booms : a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium analysis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6984, The World Bank.
    15. Enrico Turco & Davide Bazzana & Massimiliano Rizzati & Emanuele Ciola & Sergio Vergalli, 2022. "Energy price shocks and stabilization policies in a multi-agent macroeconomic model for the Euro Area," Working Papers 2022.25, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    16. Fadia Al Hajj & Gilles Dufr??not, & Kimiko Sugimoto & Romain Wolf, 2013. "Reactions to Shocks and Monetary Policy Regimes: Inflation Targeting Versus Flexible Currency Board in Ghana, South Africa and the WAEMU," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp1062, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    17. Evans, David & Ghelani, Niyati, 2013. "Diagrammatic Back of the Envelope (BOTE) Model for One Country Two Factors and Four Commodities (124) with Illustrations from full Ethiopia CGE model and Showing HOS Origin and 123 Alternative," Conference papers 332371, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    18. SENBETA, Sisay Regassa, 2011. "A small open economy new Keynesian DSGE model for a foreign exchange constrained economy," Working Papers 2011004, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    19. Kawther Alimi & Mohamed Chakroun, 2022. "Wage Rigidity Impacts on Unemployment and Inflation Persistence in Tunisia: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 13(1), pages 474-500, March.

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