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Reactions to Shocks and Monetary Policy Regimes: Inflation Targeting Versus Flexible Currency Board in Ghana, South Africa and the WAEMU

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  • Fadia Al Hajj

    ()

  • Gilles Dufrénot,

    ()

  • Kimiko Sugimoto

    ()

  • Romain Wolf

    ()

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to examine the monetary policy actions through which the central banks in the Sub-Saharan African countries have searched to eliminate the negative impacts of the shocks facing their economies. We compare two types of monetary policy regimes: a currency board regime (in the CFA zone countries) and an inflation targeting policy regime (in Ghana and South Africa). We compare the properties of both policies when the central banks respond to three negative shocks hitting the economies: a recessionary demand shock, a supply shock increasing inflation and a negative fiscal shock. We propose an FPAS model (forecasting and monetary policy analysis system) that extends the usual FPAS models used in the literature to evaluate the impact of several policies in response to different types of exogenous shocks. We find that both policies are inappropriate to help the economies exiting from the effects of negative demand shocks (the adjustment relies mainly on fiscal policy), both are essential when negative shocks to primary balance occur (fiscal policy aggravates the negative effects of the shocks), while inflation targeting dominates the currency board regime as a strategy to cope with positive shocks to inflation.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan in its series William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series with number wp1062.

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Length: pages
Date of creation: 15 Nov 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wdi:papers:2013-1062

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Keywords: inflation target; currency board; African countries;

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  1. Victor Duarte Lledo & Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro, 2011. "Fiscal Policy Implementation in Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Working Papers 11/172, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Charalambos G. Tsangarides & Yasser Abdih, 2006. "FEER for the CFA Franc," IMF Working Papers 06/236, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Sami Alpanda & Kevin Kotzé & Geoffrey Woglom, 2011. "Forecasting Performance Of An Estimated Dsge Model For The South African Economy," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 79(1), pages 50-67, 03.
  4. Gilles Dufrénot, 2011. "Monetary autonomy in the West African countries: What do the policy rules tell us?," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 63-81, January.
  5. Oral Williams & Olumuyiwa Adedeji, 2007. "Fiscal Reaction Functions in the CFA Zone," IMF Working Papers 07/232, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Arminio Fraga & Ilan Goldfajn & Andre Minella, 2003. "Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies," NBER Working Papers 10019, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Bharat Trehan & Carl E. Walsh, 1988. "Testing intertemporal budget constraints: theory and applications to U. S. federal budget and current account deficits," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 88-03, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  8. Rotemberg, Julio J, 1982. "Sticky Prices in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1187-1211, December.
  9. John B. Taylor, 2001. "The Role of the Exchange Rate in Monetary-Policy Rules," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 263-267, May.
  10. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," NBER Working Papers 5146, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Philippe Burger & Ian Stuart & Charl Jooste & Alfredo Cuevas, 2012. "Fiscal Sustainability And The Fiscal Reaction Function For South Africa: Assessment Of The Past And Future Policy Applications," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 80(2), pages 209-227, 06.
  12. Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February.
  13. Jihad Dagher & Jan Gottschalk & Rafael Portillo, 2010. "Oil Windfalls in Ghana," IMF Working Papers 10/116, International Monetary Fund.
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