IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2003-106.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Anticipating Credit Events Using Credit Default Swaps, with An Application to Sovereign Debt Crises

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau

Abstract

In reduced-form pricing models, it is usual to assume a fixed recovery rate to obtain the probability of default from credit default swap prices. An alternative credit risk measure is proposed here: the maximum recovery rate compatible with observed prices. The analysis of the recent debt crisis in Argentina using this methodology shows that the correlation between the maximum recovery rate and implied default probabilities turns negative in advance of the credit event realization. This empirical finding suggests that the maximum recovery rate can be used for constructing early warning indicators of financial distress.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau, 2003. "Anticipating Credit Events Using Credit Default Swaps, with An Application to Sovereign Debt Crises," IMF Working Papers 2003/106, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2003/106
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=16485
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bank for International Settlements, 2002. "Market functioning and central bank policy," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 12.
    2. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    3. Ian Marsh, 2002. "What central banks can learn about default risk from credit markets," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Market functioning and central bank policy, volume 12, pages 329-339, Bank for International Settlements.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nurbanu Bursa & Hüseyin Tatlýdil, 2015. "Investigation of Credit Default Swaps using Detrended Fluctuation Analysis which is an Econophysical Technique," Eurasian Eononometrics, Statistics and Emprical Economics Journal, Eurasian Academy Of Sciences, vol. 2(2), pages 25-33, October.
    2. Zha, Yiling & Power, David & Tantisantiwong, Nongnuch, 2020. "The cross-country transmission of credit risk between sovereigns and firms in Asia," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 309-320.
    3. International Monetary Fund, 2006. "Iceland: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2006/297, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Andrea Pescatori & Amadou N R Sy, 2007. "Are Debt Crises Adequately Defined?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 54(2), pages 306-337, June.
    5. Ho, Sy Hoa, 2016. "Long and short-runs determinants of the sovereign CDS spread in emerging countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 579-590.
    6. Ciarlone, Alessio & Trebeschi, Giorgio, 2005. "Designing an early warning system for debt crises," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 376-395, December.
    7. Yi-Hsuan Chen & Kehluh Wang & Anthony Tu, 2011. "Default correlation at the sovereign level: evidence from some Latin American markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(11), pages 1399-1411.
    8. Dale F. Gray & Robert C. Merton & Zvi Bodie, 2006. "A New Framework for Analyzing and Managing Macrofinancial Risks of an Economy," NBER Working Papers 12637, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Mr. Amadou N Sy & Mr. Andrea Pescatori, 2004. "Debt Crises and the Development of International Capital Markets," IMF Working Papers 2004/044, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau & Ms. Yoon Sook Kim, 2004. "Equity Prices, Credit Default Swaps, and Bond Spreads in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 2004/027, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Michael Adler & Jeong Song, 2010. "The behavior of emerging market sovereigns' credit default swap premiums and bond yield spreads," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 31-58.
    12. Alain Monfort & Jean-Paul Renne, 2011. "Credit and Liquidity Risks in Euro-area Sovereign Yield Curves," Working Papers 2011-26, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    13. Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau, 2006. "Market-Based Estimation of Default Probabilities and its Application to Financial Market Surveillance," IMF Working Papers 2006/104, International Monetary Fund.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gady Jacoby & Chuan Liao & Jonathan A. Batten, 2007. "A Pure Test for the Elasticity of Yield Spreads," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp195, IIIS.
    2. ilya, gikhman, 2006. "Fixed-income instrument pricing," MPRA Paper 1449, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Gordian Rättich & Kim Clark & Evi Hartmann, 2011. "Performance measurement and antecedents of early internationalizing firms: A systematic assessment," Working Papers 0031, College of Business, University of Texas at San Antonio.
    4. Gerardo Manzo & Antonio Picca, 2020. "The Impact of Sovereign Shocks," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(7), pages 3113-3132, July.
    5. Christophe Hurlin & Jérémy Leymarie & Antoine Patin, 2018. "Loss functions for LGD model comparison," Working Papers halshs-01516147, HAL.
    6. Neus, Werner, 2014. "Eigenkapitalnormen, Boni und Risikoanreize in Banken," Die Unternehmung - Swiss Journal of Business Research and Practice, Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft mbH & Co. KG, vol. 68(2), pages 92-107.
    7. Giordani, Paolo & Jacobson, Tor & Schedvin, Erik von & Villani, Mattias, 2014. "Taking the Twists into Account: Predicting Firm Bankruptcy Risk with Splines of Financial Ratios," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(4), pages 1071-1099, August.
    8. Ulrike Malmendier & Vincenzo Pezone & Hui Zheng, 2023. "Managerial Duties and Managerial Biases," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(6), pages 3174-3201, June.
    9. Lily Y. Liu, 2017. "Estimating Loss Given Default from CDS under Weak Identification," Supervisory Research and Analysis Working Papers RPA 17-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    10. Kern, Markus & Rudolph, Bernd, 2001. "Comparative analysis of alternative credit risk models: An application on German middle market loan portfolios," CFS Working Paper Series 2001/03, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    11. Jeremy Leake, 2003. "Credit spreads on sterling corporate bonds and the term structure of UK interest rates," Bank of England working papers 202, Bank of England.
    12. Xin Huang & Hao Zhou & Haibin Zhu, 2012. "Systemic Risk Contributions," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 42(1), pages 55-83, October.
    13. Milne, Alistair, 2014. "Distance to default and the financial crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 26-36.
    14. Boulanouar, Zakaria & Alqahtani, Faisal & Hamdi, Besma, 2021. "Bank ownership, institutional quality and financial stability: evidence from the GCC region," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    15. Richardson, Grant & Taylor, Grantley & Lanis, Roman, 2015. "The impact of financial distress on corporate tax avoidance spanning the global financial crisis: Evidence from Australia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 44-53.
    16. Zhijian (James) Huang & Yuchen Luo, 2016. "Revisiting Structural Modeling of Credit Risk—Evidence from the Credit Default Swap (CDS) Market," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-20, May.
    17. Masahiko Egami & Rusudan Kevkhishvili, 2020. "Time reversal and last passage time of diffusions with applications to credit risk management," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 795-825, July.
    18. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Schuermann, Til & Treutler, Bjorn-Jakob & Weiner, Scott M., 2006. "Macroeconomic Dynamics and Credit Risk: A Global Perspective," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1211-1261, August.
    19. Zhou, Fanyin & Fu, Lijun & Li, Zhiyong & Xu, Jiawei, 2022. "The recurrence of financial distress: A survival analysis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1100-1115.
    20. Sandrine Lardic & Claire Gauthier, 2003. "Un modèle multifactoriel des spreads de crédit : estimation sur panels complets et incomplets," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 159(3), pages 53-69.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2003/106. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.