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Robustness of the CUSUM and CUSUM-of-Squares Tests to Serial Correlation, Endogeneity and Lack of Structural Invariance. Some Monte Carlo Evidence

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Author Info
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria (London South Bank University)
Pittis, Nikitas (University of Piraeus)

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Abstract

This paper investigates by means of Monte Carlo techniques the robustness of the CUSUM and CUSUM-of-squares tests (Brown et al., 1975) to serial correlation, endogeneity and lack of structural invariance. Our findings suggest that these tests perform better in the context of a dynamic model of the ADL type, which is not affected by serial correlation or nonpredetermined regressors even if over-specified. In this case, the empirical sizes of both tests are close to the nominal ones, whether a stationary or a cointegration environment is considered. The CUSUM-of-squares test is to be preferred, as it is very powerful to detect changes in the conditional model parameters, whether or not the variance of the regression error is included in the set of parameters shifting, especially towards the end of the sample.

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File URL: http://www.ihs.ac.at/publications/eco/es-157.pdf
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File Function: First version, 2004
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Institute for Advanced Studies in its series Economics Series with number 157.

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Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: May 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ihs:ihsesp:157

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Related research
Keywords: CUSUM and CUSUM-of-squares tests; Parameter instability; Structural invariance; Marginal and conditional processes; ADL model;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Hypothesis Testing
C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Ploberger, Werner & Kr?mer;, Walter, 1990. "The Local Power of the CUSUM and CUSUM of Squares Tests," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(03), pages 335-347, September. [Downloadable!]
  2. repec:cup:etheor:v:6:y:1990:i:3:p:335-47 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Hansen, Bruce E, 1992. "Tests for Parameter Instability in Regressions with I(1) Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 321-35, July.
    Other versions:
  4. Kramer, Walter & Ploberger, Werner & Alt, Raimund, 1988. "Testing for Structural Change in Dynamic Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1355-69, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Peter C.B. Phillips & Joon Y. Park, 1986. "Statistical Inference in Regressions with Integrated Processes: Part 2," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 819R, Cowles Foundation, Yale University, revised Feb 1987. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. King, Maxwell L., 1985. "A point optimal test for autoregressive disturbances," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 21-37, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Phillips, P C B, 1988. "Reflections on Econometric Methodology," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 64(187), pages 344-59, December.
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  8. Hansen, Bruce E., 2000. "Testing for structural change in conditional models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 93-115, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Ploberger, Werner & Kramer, Walter, 1992. "The CUSUM Test with OLS Residuals," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 271-85, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Dr. Peter Kenning & Hilke Plassmann, 2004. "NeuroEconomics," Experimental 0412005, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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