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Linking excess mortality to Google mobility data during the COVID-19 pandemic in England and Wales

Author

Listed:
  • Ugofilippo Basellini
  • Diego Alburez-Gutierrez
  • Emanuele Del Fava
  • Daniela Perrotta
  • Marco Bonetti
  • Carlo Giovanni Camarda
  • Emilio Zagheni

Abstract

Non-pharmaceutical interventions have been implemented worldwide to curb the spread of COVID-19. However, the effectiveness of such governmental measures in reducing the mortality burden remains a key question of scientific interest and public debate. In this study, we leverage digital mobility data to assess the effects of reduced human mobility on excess mortality, focusing on regional data in England and Wales between February and August 2020. We estimate a robust association between mobility reductions and lower excess mortality, after adjusting for time trends and regional differences in a mixed-effects regression framework and considering a five-week lag between the two measures. We predict that, in the absence of mobility reductions, the number of excess deaths could have more than doubled in England and Wales during this period, especially in the London area. The study is one of the first attempts to quantify the effects of mobility reductions on excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Ugofilippo Basellini & Diego Alburez-Gutierrez & Emanuele Del Fava & Daniela Perrotta & Marco Bonetti & Carlo Giovanni Camarda & Emilio Zagheni, 2020. "Linking excess mortality to Google mobility data during the COVID-19 pandemic in England and Wales," Working Papers axehlaypkgkzhr-blqv4, French Institute for Demographic Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:idg:wpaper:axehlaypkgkzhr-blqv4
    DOI: 10.31235/osf.io/75d6m
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Frank Schlosser & Benjamin F. Maier & Olivia Jack & David Hinrichs & Adrian Zachariae & Dirk Brockmann, 2020. "COVID-19 lockdown induces disease-mitigating structural changes in mobility networks," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 117(52), pages 32883-32890, December.
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    RePEc Biblio mentions

    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Covid-19 > Health > Distancing and Lockdown > Effect on Health

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    Cited by:

    1. Artur Strzelecki & Ana Azevedo & Mariia Rizun & Paulina Rutecka & Kacper Zagała & Karina Cicha & Alexandra Albuquerque, 2022. "Human Mobility Restrictions and COVID-19 Infection Rates: Analysis of Mobility Data and Coronavirus Spread in Poland and Portugal," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(21), pages 1-25, November.
    2. Venera Tomaselli & Massimo Mucciardi, 2021. "Mobility and mortality in covid-19 epidemic: a spatial analysis," RIEDS - Rivista Italiana di Economia, Demografia e Statistica - The Italian Journal of Economic, Demographic and Statistical Studies, SIEDS Societa' Italiana di Economia Demografia e Statistica, vol. 75(2), pages 39-49, April-Jun.
    3. Mariani, Lucas Argentieri & Gagete-Miranda, Jessica & Rettl, Paula, 2020. "Words can hurt: how political communication can change the pace of an epidemic," OSF Preprints ps2wx, Center for Open Science.

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