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The Last and Next 10 Years of Foresight

Author

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  • Ozcan Saritas

    (National Research University Higher School of Economics)

  • Derrick Ababio Anim

    (National Research University Higher School of Economics)

Abstract

This study investigates trends in Foresight and establishes how the changing global landscape has affected the Foresight activities over the last decade. The strategies these countries have adopted to counter the effects and make the best of these changes have also been examined. Key issues discussed in the paper cover the drivers of the trends in the past and next decade and their future implications for Foresight. The study identifies trends in Foresight through case studies. Five leading countries in Foresight have been selected for analysis including Finland, the UK, Germany, Japan and Russia. A set of indicators have been designed for the purpose of benchmarking national Foresight activities of these five countries. Among the indicators are: the contextual landscape, scope of the exercise, regularity of using Foresight for policy formulation, funding mechanisms, scale of participation as well as use and implementation. The results of the study show that, Foresight activities have changed in content, context and process over the last ten years. First, Foresight has moved from large scale national activities and become narrower in scope with attempts to focus on specific grand challenges, sectors or technologies. Second, in the quest to provide a broader picture of the social environment within which the results of the study will be implemented in order to ensure robust STI policy, Foresight exercises have become more extensive by involving more social stakeholders and expert consultations. Also, technological applications have shortened the entire Foresight process as new tools have been created for gathering and processing data, eliciting opinions, and disseminating them widely. This is a result of more intensive use of technologies and electronic platforms for the purpose of Foresight studies. Recent Foresight literature lacks a comprehensive overview of the changing landscape of policy making, motivations for organizing Foresight activities and processes of implementing Foresight. The present study aims to fill this gap with a holistic analysis of the context, content and process of Foresight activities in the past 10 years, and discusses possible transformations in the next 10 years.

Suggested Citation

  • Ozcan Saritas & Derrick Ababio Anim, 2017. "The Last and Next 10 Years of Foresight," HSE Working papers WP BRP 77/STI/2017, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hig:wpaper:77sti2017
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Li,Yining, 2012. "Economic Reform and Development in China," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107024052.
    2. Kerstin Cuhls, 2003. "From forecasting to foresight processes-new participative foresight activities in Germany," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2-3), pages 93-111.
    3. Ozcan Saritas & Serhat Burmaoglu, 2015. "The evolution of the use of Foresight methods: a scientometric analysis of global FTA research output," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 105(1), pages 497-508, October.
    4. Saritas, Ozcan & Burmaoglu, Serhat, 2016. "Future of sustainable military operations under emerging energy and security considerations," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 331-343.
    5. Ozcan Saritas & Erol Taymaz & Turgut Tumer, 2006. "Vision 2023: Turkey’s National Technology Foresight Program – a contextualist description and analysis," ERC Working Papers 0601, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Jan 2006.
    6. Anastassios Pouris & Portia Raphasha, 2015. "Priorities Setting with Foresight in South Africa," Foresight-Russia Форсайт, CyberLeninka;Федеральное государственное автономное образовательное учреждение высшего образования «Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики», vol. 9(3 (eng)), pages 66-79.
    7. Anastassios Pouris & Portia Raphasha, 2015. "Priorities Setting with Foresight in South Africa," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 9(3), pages 66-79.
    8. Burmaoglu, Serhat & Sarıtas, Ozcan, 2017. "Changing characteristics of warfare and the future of Military R&D," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 151-161.
    9. Dirk Meissner & Alexander Sokolov, 2013. "Foresight and science, technology and innovation indicators," Chapters, in: Fred Gault (ed.), Handbook of Innovation Indicators and Measurement, chapter 16, pages 381-402, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    10. Dirk Meissner & Leonid Gokhberg & Alexander Sokolov (ed.), 2013. "Science, Technology and Innovation Policy for the Future," Springer Books, Springer, edition 127, number 978-3-642-31827-6, September.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Foresight; science and technology; science technology and innovation policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Z - Other Special Topics

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