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Long-Term Trends in the ICT Sector

Author

Listed:
  • Alexander Giglavy

    (Moscow Lycee no 1533 (Information Technologies))

  • Alexander Sokolov

    (Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge, National Research University — Higher School of Economics)

  • Gulnara Abdrakhmanova

    (Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge, National Research University — Higher School of Economics)

  • Alexander Chulok

    (Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge, National Research University — Higher School of Economics)

  • Vasily Burov

    (WikiVote!)

Abstract

Information and communication technologies (ICT) radically transform many areas of human activity thus attracting great attention of researchers. However, the dynamics of ICT development depends on the global challenges and broader trends that define long-term S&T priorities. What factors that will influence the future of the ICT industry? What technological solutions will determine its characteristics in the next 15–20 years? These and similar questions were considered by the HSE ISSEK specialists in co-operation with the colleagues from other research entities while investigating trends in S&T at the global and national levels. The experts have analyzed socio-economic and S&T challenges affecting the ICT sector, advanced R&D fields, markets for innovative products and services, estimated the «windows of opportunities» for Russia. As a result, the strategic directions of blueprint research which ensure the basis for the creation of innovative products and new markets for the medium- and long-term (beyond 2020) perspective. Foresight results have been validated by the representatives of leading companies, research centers, universities and international organizations. Among the solutions expected in the period up to 2030 are the prototypes of systems implementing the new computing principles and multi-language software for extraction and formalization of knowledge, technologies dealing with «big data», new analytical tools (personal analytic systems, means of the real time data processing, mobile analytics, etc.). Markets for novel technology solutions are expected to be rapidly growing in healthcare, energy, engineering and transport, as well as in personal usage of ICT products and services. The study allows to conclude that in the medium to long term, the ICT sector will retain a high growth dynamic and will have transformative impact on virtually all areas of human life. The life cycle of technologies, related products and services will shorten. In this context, R&D development plays a crucial role for keeping up with competitors. Russian science has a certain potential in much of the considered areas, although one can hardly perceive Russia as gaining global leadership. A breakthrough level of research is observed, for example, in telecommunication technologies (communication, networking and content distribution). Note: Downloadable document is in Russian.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander Giglavy & Alexander Sokolov & Gulnara Abdrakhmanova & Alexander Chulok & Vasily Burov, 2013. "Long-Term Trends in the ICT Sector," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 7(3), pages 6-24.
    • Handle: RePEc:hig:fsight:v:7:y:2013:i:3:p:6-24
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    File URL: https://foresight-journal.hse.ru/data/2014/10/21/1279062386/1-Sokolov-6-24.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Taisa Kasimova & Sabina Magomedova & Zaur Ismikhanov, 2021. "Econometric Models for Russia’s GDP Analysis and Forecasting in the Industrial Section of the Economy in Conditions of Its Digital Transformation," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 12(4), pages 1694-1716, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    long-term forecast; priority areas; trends; global challenges; S&T capacities; information and communication technologies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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