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Interest Rate Smoothing versus Serially Correlated Errors in Taylor Rules: Testing the Tests

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Author Info

  • Welz, Peter

    ()
    (Department of Economics)

  • Österholm, Pär

    ()
    (Department of Economics)

Abstract

This paper contributes to the recent debate about the estimated high partial adjustment coefficient in dynamic Taylor rules, commonly interpreted as deliberate interest rate smoothing on the part of the monetary authority. We argue that a high coefficient on the lagged interest rate term may be a consequence of an incorrectly specified central bank reaction function. Focusing on omitted variables, our Monte Carlo study first generates the well-known fact that all coefficients in the misspecified equation are biased in such cases. In particular, if relevant variables are left out from the estimated equation, a high partial adjustment coefficient is obtained even when it is in fact zero in the data generating process. Misspecification also leads to considerable size distortions in two tests that were recently proposed by English, Nelson, and Sack (2003) in order to distinguish between interest rate smoothing and serially correlated disturbances. Our results question the common interpretation of very slow partial adjustment as interest rate smoothing in estimated dynamic Taylor rules.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Uppsala University, Department of Economics in its series Working Paper Series with number 2005:14.

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Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: 31 Mar 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:uunewp:2005_014

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Postal: Department of Economics, Uppsala University, P. O. Box 513, SE-751 20 Uppsala, Sweden
Phone: + 46 18 471 25 00
Fax: + 46 18 471 14 78
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Web page: http://www.nek.uu.se/
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Related research

Keywords: Monetary policy; Taylor rule; Interest rate smoothing; Serially correlated error term; Omitted variables;

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References

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  1. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2003. "What is Wrong with Taylor Rules? Using Judgment in Monetary Policy through Targeting Rules," NBER Working Papers 9421, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Johansson, Fredrik & Klevmarken, Anders, 2006. "Explaining the size and nature of response in a survey on health status and economic standard," Working Paper Series 2006:2, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
  2. Chen, Jie, 2006. "The Dynamics of Housing Allowance Claims in Sweden: A discrete-time hazard analysis," Working Paper Series 2006:1, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
  3. Eleftheriou, Maria, 2009. "Monetary policy in Germany: A cointegration analysis on the relevance of interest rate rules," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 946-960, September.
  4. Qiong Li & Zhiwei Wang, 2010. "The Taylor rules and macroeconomic fluctuation in China: 1994–2006," Frontiers of Economics in China, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 232-253, June.
  5. Travaglini, Guido, 2007. "The U.S. Dynamic Taylor Rule With Multiple Breaks, 1984-2001," MPRA Paper 3419, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Jun 2007.
  6. Gerberding, Christina & Seitz, Franz & Worms, Andreas, 2007. "Money-based interest rate rules: lessons from German data," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,06, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  7. Cinzia Alcidi , Alessandro Flamini, Andrea Fracasso, 2005. ""Taylored rules". Does one fit (or hide) all?," IHEID Working Papers 04-2005, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies, revised Apr 2006.
  8. Berg, Lennart & Berger, Tommy, 2005. "The Q theory and the Swedish housing market –an empirical test," Working Paper Series 2005:19, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
  9. Hallberg, Daniel, 2006. "Cross-national differences in income poverty among Europe´s 50+," Working Paper Series 2006:14, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.

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