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Bubbles and Experience: An Experiment on Speculation

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Author Info
Dufwenberg, Martin () (Dept. of Economics, Stockholm University)
Lindqvist, Tobias () (Research Institute of Industrial Economics)
Moore, Evan () (Auburn University Montgomery)

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Abstract

We investigate experimentally how the share of experienced traders in doubleauction asset markets affects trading, in particular the occurrence of bubble-crash pricing patterns. In each session, six subjects trade in three successive market rounds and gain experience. In a fourth round, depending on the treatment, two or four experienced subjects are replaced by inexperienced subjects. The results are compared to earlier findings when all traders were either inexperienced or experienced. We explore what can be learned by analogy between these laboratory findings and the performance of naturally occurring markets.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Stockholm University, Department of Economics in its series Research Papers in Economics with number 2003:1.

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Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: 20 Jan 2003
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Handle: RePEc:hhs:sunrpe:2003_0001

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Postal: Department of Economics, Stockholm, S-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
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Keywords: asset market bubble crash experience experiment speculation

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C92 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Group Behavior
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. J. Bradford De Long & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, . "The Size and Incidence of Losses from Noise Trading," J. Bradford De Long's Working Papers _128, University of California at Berkeley, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  2. Palomino, Frederic, 1996. " Noise Trading in Small Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1537-50, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Vernon L. Smith, 1962. "An Experimental Study of Competitive Market Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 70, pages 322. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-38, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Porter, David P & Smith, Vernon L, 1995. "Futures Contracting and Dividend Uncertainty in Experimental Asset Markets," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(4), pages 509-41, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Markus K Brunnermeier, 2002. "Bubbles and Crashes," FMG Discussion Papers dp401, Financial Markets Group. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    • Dilip Abreu & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2003. "Bubbles and Crashes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 173-204, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Garber, Peter M, 1989. "Tulipmania," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 535-60, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Peterson, Steven P., 1993. "Forecasting dynamics and convergence to market fundamentals : Evidence from experimental asset markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 269-284, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. De Long, J Bradford, et al, 1989. " The Size and Incidence of the Losses from Noise Trading," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(3), pages 681-96, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Lei, Vivian & Noussair, Charles N & Plott, Charles R, 2001. "Nonspeculative Bubbles in Experimental Asset Markets: Lack of Common Knowledge of Rationality vs. Actual Irrationality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(4), pages 831-59, July.
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  11. Smith, Vernon L & Suchanek, Gerry L & Williams, Arlington W, 1988. "Bubbles, Crashes, and Endogenous Expectations in Experimental Spot Asset Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(5), pages 1119-51, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Robert Slonim, 2005. "Competing Against Experienced and Inexperienced Players," Experimental Economics, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 55-75, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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