IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hhs/nlsseb/2018_011.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Optimal Asset Allocation for Commodity Sovereign Wealth Funds

Author

Listed:
  • Irarrazabal, Alfonso A.

    (BI Norwegian Business School)

  • Ma, Lin

    (School of Economics and Business, Norwegian University of Life Sciences)

Abstract

This paper solves a dynamic asset allocation problem for a commodity sovereign wealth fund under incomplete markets. We calibrate the model using data from three countries: Norway, UAE and Chile. In our benchmark calibration for Norway, we find that the fund’s manager should initially invest all her wealth to stock and reduce this fraction gradually over time. We find that the solution is particularly sensitive to the assumption about the volatility of commodity prices. The solution for Chile implies that for relatively high risk aversion coefficients the manager should start at a small fraction of her wealth to increase later over the life cycle of the fund.

Suggested Citation

  • Irarrazabal, Alfonso A. & Ma, Lin, 2018. "Optimal Asset Allocation for Commodity Sovereign Wealth Funds," Working Paper Series 11-2018, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, School of Economics and Business.
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:nlsseb:2018_011
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nmbu.no/download/file/fid/33992
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. van den Bremer, Ton & van der Ploeg, Frederick & Wills, Samuel, 2016. "The Elephant In The Ground: Managing Oil And Sovereign Wealth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 113-131.
    2. George Chacko & Luis M. Viceira, 2005. "Dynamic Consumption and Portfolio Choice with Stochastic Volatility in Incomplete Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(4), pages 1369-1402.
    3. Merton, Robert C., 1971. "Optimum consumption and portfolio rules in a continuous-time model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 373-413, December.
    4. Henderson, Vicky, 2005. "Explicit solutions to an optimal portfolio choice problem with stochastic income," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1237-1266, July.
    5. Svensson, Lars E. O. & Werner, Ingrid M., 1993. "Nontraded assets in incomplete markets : Pricing and portfolio choice," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1149-1168, June.
    6. Campbell, John Y. & Viceira, Luis M., 2002. "Strategic Asset Allocation: Portfolio Choice for Long-Term Investors," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198296942.
    7. Bodie, Zvi & Merton, Robert C. & Samuelson, William F., 1992. "Labor supply flexibility and portfolio choice in a life cycle model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 16(3-4), pages 427-449.
    8. Beeler, Jason & Campbell, John Y., 2012. "The Long-Run Risks Model and Aggregate Asset Prices: An Empirical Assessment," Critical Finance Review, now publishers, vol. 1(1), pages 141-182, January.
    9. Brennan, Michael J. & Schwartz, Eduardo S. & Lagnado, Ronald, 1997. "Strategic asset allocation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(8-9), pages 1377-1403, June.
    10. World Bank, 2014. "World Development Indicators 2014," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 18237, December.
    11. Alexander Dyck & Adair Morse, 2011. "Sovereign Wealth Fund Portfolios," Working Papers 2011-003, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    12. Munk, Claus & Sørensen, Carsten, 2010. "Dynamic asset allocation with stochastic income and interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(3), pages 433-462, June.
    13. Sasha F. Stoikov & Thaleia Zariphopoulou, 2005. "Dynamic Asset Allocation And Consumption Choice In Incomplete Markets," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(4), pages 414-454, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Björn Bick & Holger Kraft & Claus Munk, 2013. "Solving Constrained Consumption-Investment Problems by Simulation of Artificial Market Strategies," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(2), pages 485-503, June.
    2. Larsen, Linda Sandris & Munk, Claus, 2012. "The costs of suboptimal dynamic asset allocation: General results and applications to interest rate risk, stock volatility risk, and growth/value tilts," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 266-293.
    3. Christensen, Peter Ove & Larsen, Kasper & Munk, Claus, 2012. "Equilibrium in securities markets with heterogeneous investors and unspanned income risk," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 147(3), pages 1035-1063.
    4. Penaranda, Francisco, 2007. "Portfolio choice beyond the traditional approach," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24481, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Jianmin Shi, 2023. "Dynamic asset allocation with multiple regime‐switching markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 1741-1755, April.
    6. Mark E. Wohar & David E. Rapach, 2005. "Return Predictability and the Implied Intertemporal Hedging Demands for Stocks and Bonds: International Evidence," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 329, Society for Computational Economics.
    7. Michael W. Brandt & Amit Goyal & Pedro Santa-Clara & Jonathan R. Stroud, 2005. "A Simulation Approach to Dynamic Portfolio Choice with an Application to Learning About Return Predictability," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(3), pages 831-873.
    8. Schwartz, Eduardo S & Tebaldi, Claudio, 2004. "Illiquid Assets and Optimal Portfolio Choice," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt7q65t12x, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    9. Klos, Alexander & Langer, Thomas & Weber, Martin, 2002. "Über kurz oder lang : welche Rolle spielt der Anlagehorizont bei Investitionsentscheidungen?," Papers 02-49, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
    10. Jakub W. Jurek & Luis M. Viceira, 2011. "Optimal Value and Growth Tilts in Long-Horizon Portfolios," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 15(1), pages 29-74.
    11. John H. Cochrane, 2014. "A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(1), pages 1-49, February.
    12. Katarzyna Romaniuk, 2020. "Does surplus/deficit sharing increase risk-taking in a corporate defined benefit pension plan?," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 43(1), pages 229-249, June.
    13. Moutanabbir, Khouzeima & Noureldin, Diaa, 2020. "Optimal asset allocation and consumption rules for commodity-based sovereign wealth funds," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 708-730.
    14. Alain Bensoussan & Bong-Gyu Jang & Seyoung Park, 2016. "Unemployment Risks and Optimal Retirement in an Incomplete Market," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 64(4), pages 1015-1032, August.
    15. Jianmin Shi, 2020. "Optimal control of multiple Markov switching stochastic system with application to portfolio decision," Papers 2010.16102, arXiv.org.
    16. Wu, Hui & Ma, Chaoqun & Yue, Shengjie, 2017. "Momentum in strategic asset allocation," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 115-127.
    17. John Y. Campbell & Luis Viceira, 2005. "The Term Structure of the Risk-Return Tradeoff," NBER Working Papers 11119, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Munk, Claus, 2020. "A mean-variance benchmark for household portfolios over the life cycle," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    19. Min Dai & Hanqing Jin & Steven Kou & Yuhong Xu, 2021. "A Dynamic Mean-Variance Analysis for Log Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(2), pages 1093-1108, February.
    20. Gollier, Christian, 2008. "Understanding saving and portfolio choices with predictable changes in assets returns," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(5-6), pages 445-458, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dynamic asset allocation; portfolio management; sovereign wealth fund; income risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:nlsseb:2018_011. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Frode Alfnes (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ioumbno.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.