IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hhs/ifauwp/2021_007.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The effect of negative income shocks on pensioners

Author

Listed:
  • Johnsen, Julian Vedeler

    (SNF)

  • Willén, Alexander

    (Norwegian School of Economics)

Abstract

This paper provides novel evidence on the labor supply response to negative income shocks in retirement, exploiting an institutional feature that caused differential and unexpected income losses among otherwise identical individuals in a sharp regression discontinuity design. We conclude that retired pensioners do not return to work despite income losses of up to seven percent of their annual income. The paper further shows that the negative income shock had no impact on the health of pensioners. At the height of an ongoing global crisis in which public pension funds are rapidly losing value, these results may be particularly important.

Suggested Citation

  • Johnsen, Julian Vedeler & Willén, Alexander, 2021. "The effect of negative income shocks on pensioners," Working Paper Series 2021:7, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2021_007
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ifau.se/globalassets/pdf/se/2021/wp-2021-7-the-effect-of-negative-income-shocks-on-pensioners.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alexander Gelber & Damon Jones & Daniel W. Sacks & Jae Song, 2022. "The Employment Effects of the Social Security Earnings Test," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 57(2), pages 341-371.
    2. Mullen, Kathleen J. & Staubli, Stefan, 2016. "Disability benefit generosity and labor force withdrawal," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 49-63.
    3. Luc Behaghel & David M. Blau, 2012. "Framing Social Security Reform: Behavioral Responses to Changes in the Full Retirement Age," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(4), pages 41-67, November.
    4. Jan Pettersson, 2014. "Instead of bowling alone? Unretirement of pensioners in Sweden," International Journal of Manpower, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 35(7), pages 1016-1037, September.
    5. Matias D. Cattaneo & Michael Jansson & Xinwei Ma, 2020. "Simple Local Polynomial Density Estimators," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 115(531), pages 1449-1455, July.
    6. Raj Chetty & Adam Guren & Day Manoli & Andrea Weber, 2013. "Does Indivisible Labor Explain the Difference between Micro and Macro Elasticities? A Meta-Analysis of Extensive Margin Elasticities," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 27(1), pages 1-56.
    7. Sebastian Calonico & Matias D. Cattaneo & Rocio Titiunik, 2014. "Robust Nonparametric Confidence Intervals for Regression‐Discontinuity Designs," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82, pages 2295-2326, November.
    8. Michaud, Pierre-Carl & van Soest, Arthur, 2008. "Health and wealth of elderly couples: Causality tests using dynamic panel data models," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1312-1325, September.
    9. Day Manoli & Andrea Weber, 2016. "Nonparametric Evidence on the Effects of Financial Incentives on Retirement Decisions," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 8(4), pages 160-182, November.
    10. Nicole Maestas, 2010. "Expectations and Realizations of Work after Retirement," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 45(3).
    11. Brown, Kristine M., 2013. "The link between pensions and retirement timing: Lessons from California teachers," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 1-14.
    12. Peter Adams & Michael D. Hurd & Daniel L. McFadden & Angela Merrill & Tiago Ribeiro, 2004. "Healthy, Wealthy, and Wise? Tests for Direct Causal Paths between Health and Socioeconomic Status," NBER Chapters, in: Perspectives on the Economics of Aging, pages 415-526, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Laun, Lisa, 2017. "The effect of age-targeted tax credits on labor force participation of older workers," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 102-118.
    14. Malkova, Olga, 2020. "Did Soviet elderly employment respond to financial incentives? Evidence from pension reforms," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    15. Andrew Gelman & Guido Imbens, 2019. "Why High-Order Polynomials Should Not Be Used in Regression Discontinuity Designs," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 447-456, July.
    16. Mikael Lindahl, 2005. "Estimating the Effect of Income on Health and Mortality Using Lottery Prizes as an Exogenous Source of Variation in Income," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 40(1).
    17. Emmanuel Saez & Joel Slemrod & Seth H. Giertz, 2012. "The Elasticity of Taxable Income with Respect to Marginal Tax Rates: A Critical Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 50(1), pages 3-50, March.
    18. Ole Beier Sørensen & Assia Billig & Marcel Lever & Jean‐Claude Menard & Ole Settergren, 2016. "The interaction of pillars in multi‐pillar pension systems: A comparison of Canada, Denmark, Netherlands and Sweden," International Social Security Review, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 69(2), pages 53-84, April.
    19. Jensen, Robert T. & Richter, Kaspar, 2004. "The health implications of social security failure: evidence from the Russian pension crisis," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1-2), pages 209-236, January.
    20. Alexander M. Gelber & Damon Jones & Daniel W. Sacks, 2020. "Estimating Adjustment Frictions Using Nonlinear Budget Sets: Method and Evidence from the Earnings Test," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(1), pages 1-31, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Malkova, Olga, 2020. "Did Soviet elderly employment respond to financial incentives? Evidence from pension reforms," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    2. Hannes Schwandt, 2018. "Wealth Shocks and Health Outcomes: Evidence from Stock Market Fluctuations," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(4), pages 349-377, October.
    3. Itay Saporta-Eksten & Ity Shurtz & Sarit Weisburd, 2021. "Social Security, Labor Supply, and Health of Older Workers: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from a Large Reform [Identification and Estimation of Local Average Treatment Effects]," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 2168-2208.
    4. Myhre, Andreas, 2021. "Intensive and Extensive Margin Labor Supply Responses to Kinks in Disability Insurance Programs," MPRA Paper 109547, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Giesecke, Matthias & Jäger, Philipp, 2021. "Pension incentives and labor supply: Evidence from the introduction of universal old-age assistance in the UK," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    6. Gruber, Jonathan & Kanninen, Ohto & Ravaska, Terhi, 2022. "Relabeling, retirement and regret," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    7. Oscar Erixson, 2017. "Health responses to a wealth shock: evidence from a Swedish tax reform," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 30(4), pages 1281-1336, October.
    8. Lundberg, Jacob & Norell, John, 2018. "Taxes, benefits and labour force participation: A survey of the quasi-experimental literature," Ratio Working Papers 313, The Ratio Institute.
    9. Ye, Han, 2018. "The Effect of Pension Subsidies on Retirement Timing of Older Women: Evidence from a Regression Kink Design," IZA Discussion Papers 11831, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Owen O'Donnell & Eddy Van Doorslaer & Tom Van Ourti, 2013. "Health and Inequality," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-170/V, Tinbergen Institute.
    11. Manoli, Dayanand & Weber, Andrea, 2016. "The Effects of the Early Retirement Age on Retirement Decisions," IZA Discussion Papers 10154, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Laun, Lisa, 2017. "The effect of age-targeted tax credits on labor force participation of older workers," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 102-118.
    13. Isabel Z. Martínez & Emmanuel Saez & Michael Siegenthaler, 2021. "Intertemporal Labor Supply Substitution? Evidence from the Swiss Income Tax Holidays," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(2), pages 506-546, February.
    14. Daniel Reck & Arthur Seibold, 2023. "The Welfare Economics of Reference Dependence," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2023_450, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    15. Philip Sauré & Arthur Seibold & Elizaveta Smorodenkova & Hosny Zoabi, 2023. "Occupations Shape Retirement across Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 10365, CESifo.
    16. Cheng, Lingguo & Liu, Hong & Zhang, Ye & Zhao, Zhong, 2018. "The health implications of social pensions: Evidence from China's new rural pension scheme," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 53-77.
    17. Kim, Jinyoung & Kim, Seonghoon & Koh, Kanghyock, 2022. "Labor market institutions and the incidence of payroll taxation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    18. Maite Blázquez & Elena Cottini & Ainhoa Herrarte, 2014. "The socioeconomic gradient in health: how important is material deprivation?," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 12(2), pages 239-264, June.
    19. Franca Glenzer & Pierre-Carl Michaud & Stefan Staubli, 2023. "Frames, Incentives, and Education: Effectiveness of Interventions to Delay Public Pension Claiming," CIRANO Working Papers 2023s-05, CIRANO.
    20. Arthur Seibold, 2019. "Reference Points for Retirement Behavior: Evidence from German Pension Discontinuities," CESifo Working Paper Series 7799, CESifo.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Pension Policy; Retirement; Labor Supply; Health;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2021_007. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ali Ghooloo (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifagvse.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.