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Cds Index Options Under Incomplete Information

Author

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  • Herbertsson, Alexander

    (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University)

  • Frey, Rüdiger

    (Not stated)

Abstract

We derive practical formulas for CDS index spreads in a credit risk model under incomplete information. The factor process driving the default intensities is not directly observable, and the filtering model of Frey & Schmidt (2012) is used as our setup. In this framework we find a computationally tractable expressions for the payoff of a CDS index option which naturally includes the so-called armageddon correction. A lower bound for the price of the CDS index option is derived and we provide explicit conditions on the strike spread for which this inequality becomes an equality. The bound is computationally feasible and do not depend the noise parameters in the filtering model. We outline how to explicitly compute the quantities involved in the lower bound for the price of the credit index option as well as implement and calibrate this model to market data. A numerical study is performed where we show that the lower bound in our model can be several hundred percent bigger compared with models which assume that the CDS index spreads follows a log-normal process. Also a systematic study is performed in order to understand the impact of various model parameters on CDS index options (and on the index itself).

Suggested Citation

  • Herbertsson, Alexander & Frey, Rüdiger, 2016. "Cds Index Options Under Incomplete Information," Working Papers in Economics 685, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:gunwpe:0685
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/2077/50947
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rüdiger Frey & Thorsten Schmidt, 2012. "Pricing and hedging of credit derivatives via the innovations approach to nonlinear filtering," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 105-133, January.
    2. Claudio Fontana & Wolfgang J. Runggaldier, 2010. "Credit Risk And Incomplete Information: Filtering And Em Parameter Estimation," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 13(05), pages 683-715.
    3. Rüdiger Frey & Wolfgang Runggaldier, 2010. "Pricing credit derivatives under incomplete information: a nonlinear-filtering approach," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 495-526, December.
    4. Giuseppe Di Graziano & L. C. G. Rogers, 2009. "A Dynamic Approach To The Modeling Of Correlation Credit Derivatives Using Markov Chains," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 12(01), pages 45-62.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit risk; CDS index; CDS index options; intensity-based models; dependence modelling; incomplete information; nonlinear filtering; numerical methods;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

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