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The Endogeneity of the Natural Rate of Growth – an Empirical Study for Latin-American Countries

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Author Info
Lena Vogel () (Department for Economics and Politics, University of Hamburg)
Abstract

The aim of this paper is to analyse the sensitivity of the natural rate of growth to the actual rate of growth for a sample of eleven Latin-American countries, assuming the natural rate to be determined endogenously by changes in the actual rate of growth. The natural rates of growth are estimated in a system of SUR estimations over the period 1986-2003. In order to determine whether they react endogenously to changes in the actual rate of growth, a dummy variable for boom periods is added to the system of regressions. In the second part of the empirical analysis, the direction of causality between input growth and output growth is then tested for four of the countries in the first sample. The results confirm not only the hypothesis about the endogeneity of the natural rate of growth, but also show causality from output growth to input growth to be much stronger than the reverse. Length: 28 pages

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File URL: http://www.wiso.uni-hamburg.de/hepdoc/macppr_4_2007.pdf
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Paper provided by Hamburg University, Department Wirtschaft und Politik in its series Macroeconomics and Finance Series with number 200704.

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Date of creation: Apr 2007
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Handle: RePEc:hep:macppr:200704

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Related research
Keywords: Natural rate of growth; actual rate of growth; endogeneity; Granger causality; Latin America;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
O40 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data

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  1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-37, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. William Easterly, 2002. "The Elusive Quest for Growth: Economists' Adventures and Misadventures in the Tropics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262550423.
  3. Dixon, R & Thirlwall, A P, 1975. "A Model of Regional Growth-Rate Differences on Kaldorian Lines," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 27(2), pages 201-14, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Mankiw, N Gregory & Romer, David & Weil, David N, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-37, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Barro, Robert J, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(2), pages 407-43, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Some recent development in a concept of causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 199-211. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Granger, Clive W J, 1997. "On Modelling the Long Run in Applied Economics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(440), pages 169-77, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Miguel A. LeÛn-Ledesma & A. P. Thirlwall, 2002. "The endogeneity of the natural rate of growth," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 26(4), pages 441-459, July.
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  9. Urbain, Jean-Pierre, 1992. "On Weak Exogeneity in Error Correction Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(2), pages 187-207, May.
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  10. Romer, Paul M, 1990. "Endogenous Technological Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages S71-102, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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