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Uncertainty and the Demand for Redistribution

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Author Info
György Molnár () (Institute of Economics, Hungarian Academy of Sciences)
Zsuzsa Kapitány () (Institute of Economics, Hungarian Academy of Sciences)

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Abstract

In this paper we focus on the connection between perception of the competitive pressure situation (unemployment, uncertainty, rising income and wealth inequalities, decreasing mobility) and demand for redistribution. Our context is Hungary, between 2000 and 2002. We identify some basic variables that have important effect on the individuals' preferences for redistribution, namely, uncertainty in actual and future income, and unemployment. Uncertainty raises the demand for redistribution even among the upwardly mobile people, and labour market status is also a major element of dissatisfaction and demand for redistribution. The most frustrated and indecisive people are those who have no clear knowledge about the immediate and the distant future. Indecisive people favour redistribution more than those with negative expectations. Past personal experience and the expectation for future income have a very strong effect on the formation of thinking about income redistribution. Even those who are currently mobile in income tend to support redistribution if they are expecting a decline in their future income and welfare. According to the POUM hypothesis, we also found a negative correlation between expected intergenerational mobility and individual support for redistribution. People perceive their relative income position, their relative mobility and inequality in different ways and their demand for redistribution substantially depends on the subjective and not on the objective income position. Concerning perception of changes in inequality, we found that the more people feel that inequalities are increasing, the more they favour redistribution policies.

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Paper provided by Institute of Economics, Hungarian Academy of Sciences in its series IEHAS Discussion Papers with number 0608.

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Date of creation: 30 Aug 2006
Date of revision: 30 Aug 2006
Handle: RePEc:has:discpr:0608

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Related research
Keywords: Mobility; Subjective Mobility; POUM; Subjective Well-being; Redistribution;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
D63 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement
D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
J62 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies - - - Job, Occupational and Intergenerational Mobility; Promotion
I31 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare and Poverty - - - General Welfare
H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General

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  1. Roland Benabou & Efe A. Ok, 2001. "Mobility as Progressivity: Ranking Income Processes According to Equality of Opportunity," NBER Working Papers 8431, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Blanchflower, David G. & Oswald, Andrew J., 2004. "Well-being over time in Britain and the USA," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(7-8), pages 1359-1386, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Roland Benabou & Jean Tirole, 2005. "Belief in a Just World and Redistributive Politics," NBER Working Papers 11208, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Alberto Alesina & Rafael Di Tella & Robert MacCulloch, 2001. "Inequality and Happiness: Are Europeans and Americans Different?," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1938, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Alberto Alesina & George-Marios Angeletos, 2005. "Fairness and Redistribution," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(4), pages 960-980, September. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Roland Bénabou & Efe A. Ok, 2001. "Social Mobility And The Demand For Redistribution: The Poum Hypothesis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 116(2), pages 447-487, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Alesina, Alberto & La Ferrara, Eliana, 2005. "Preferences for redistribution in the land of opportunities," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(5-6), pages 897-931, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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