Flaunt them If you’ve Got them? Informal Connections and Beliefs About Prospects of Upward Mobility in Transition Economies

Expectations of future upward mobility have been shown to determine current preferences for redistribution, but how are these expectations formed? This study presents evidence that expectations of future mobility may be constrained by beliefs about how fair is access to key opportunities in life, like a good government or private sector job, or university education. Data from the Life in Transition survey show that those who believe informal connections to be vital to access these key opportunities—a widespread belief in the region—have lower expectations of future upward mobility, while access to informal connections is associated with a 40% higher expected future mobility. Finally, those who perceive access to opportunities to be unfair and mediated by informal connections also demand more redistribution, unless such connections are available to secure access to opportunities.