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Stability and predictability of the monetary multiplier in the Democratic Republic of the Congo
[Stabilité et prédictibilité du multiplicateur monétaire en République démocratique du Congo ]

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  • Hénock Katuala Muanza

    (UPC - Université protestante au Congo)

Abstract

This paper assesses the macroeconometric properties of the Congolese Congolese monetary multiplier through the analysis of its stability and predictability from 1990 to 2019. It has an acceptable value, and its evolution is connected to the macroeconomic, monetary and fi nancial situation of the Democratic Republic of Congo. To achieve this, We used the unit root test ADF to rule on the stationarity of the series, the cointegration test in the sense of Engle-Granger (1987) to analyze the existence of a longterm relationship between the variables and four (4) ARIMA (Box-Jenkins) models to assess the quality of the predictability of this multiplier. We have found that money supply and the money base are linked in the long term, which indicates some stability in the money multiplier. This could justify the use of the multiplier in the conduct of policy and monetary targeting in DR Congo. The existence of the long-term relationship between the base and the money supply confirms its predictability which is better predicted by its trend and seasonal components by using the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter.

Suggested Citation

  • Hénock Katuala Muanza, 2020. "Stability and predictability of the monetary multiplier in the Democratic Republic of the Congo [Stabilité et prédictibilité du multiplicateur monétaire en République démocratique du Congo ]," Working Papers hal-02610767, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-02610767
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-02610767
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Imad Moosa & Jae Kim, 2004. "Direct and indirect forecasting of the money multiplier and velocity of circulation in the United Kingdom," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 103-118.
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    3. Gulbin Sahinbeyoglu, 1996. "The Stability of Money Multiplier : A Test for Cointregration," Discussion Papers 9603, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
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