Tourisme et croissance économique dans les petites économies insulaires : à l'épreuve des modèles à seuil

Tourism has raised many expectations from governments and public decision-makers. As a result, the challenges of the economic impact of tourism are at the heart of tourism strategies for destinations around the world. This question is even more significant for small island economies (SIE), since the development of most of them rests essentially on the tourism sector (McElroy, 2006; McElroy and Parry, 2010). The challenges of the economic impact of tourism are at the heart of tourism strategies for destinations around the world. This question is even more significant for small island economies (SIE), since the development of most of them rests essentially on the tourism sector (McElroy, 2006; McElroy and Parry, 2010). Although several studies seek to show and confirm the impact of the growth hypothesis driven by tourism on the economy of the destinations concerned, the debate is not over. This hypothesis still gives rise to many discussions, because the real impact of tourism is more than ambiguous. Effect, it gives rise to many uncertainties, due to the many negative externalities (environmental degradation, overtourism and economic leaks) that it generates, but also on the possibility of a gradual decline in its impact on local economies. Thus, the link between tourism and growth would thus be non-linear, since it would depend on the comparison between the advantages associated with the development of this sector and the negative externalities that it induces. The objective of this article is to empirically analyze the relationship between tourism and economic growth for 46 small island economies using threshold modeling. Unlike traditional studies which use linear models, we apply the threshold model developed by Hansen (2000) by testing three variables: the number of visitors (tourists and cruise passengers), tourist receipts and the tourist penetration indicator (TPI). TPI provides a comprehensive measure of economic, social and environmental impact on small islands (McElroy & de Albuquerque, 1998). Our results confirm a non-linear relationship of tourism to economic growth. The choice of the TPI as tourism variable makes it possible to identify two regimes. In the first, tourism has a greater impact on economic growth, when the TPI is lower. Its impact decreases when the TPI exceeds 0.30, that is to say at the point of inflection towards the second regime comprising saturated tourist destinations.