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Tous unis contre le protectionnisme des pays du Nord ?

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  • Guillaume Daudin

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

Le débat actuel sur la mondialisation oppose les sceptiques — notamment les ONG — et les enthousiastes — notamment les grandes organisations internationales issues de Bretton-Woods. Un rapport récent de l'OXFAM — une ONG habituellement sceptique —, les réactions qu'il a suscité parmi les enthousiastes et de nombreuses interventions des sceptiques comme des enthousiastes montrent que ces deux camps se réconcilient lorsqu'il s'agit de condamner le protectionnisme des pays du Nord : les sceptiques dénoncent l'obstacle mis au développement des pays du Sud ; les enthousiastes y voient une entorse néfaste au libre-échange. On s'interroge ici sur la profondeur de cette réconciliation. Les outils habituels d'analyse des effets des restrictions commerciales utilisés par les enthousiastes — et repris dans les arguments des sceptiques — sont des modèles d'équilibre général calculables appliqués à l'analyse du commerce international. Ils montrent en fait que les gains de l'ouverture des marchés des pays du Nord seraient faibles et reviendraient en termes absolus en priorité aux pays du Nord : ils ne permettent pas de condamner le protectionnisme des pays du Nord au nom des intérêts des pays du Sud. Ces modèles ne permettent donc pas d'étendre l'accord entre enthousiastes et sceptiques sur un résultat à un accord sur une analyse complète du rôle du commerce international. Cela est d'ailleurs confirmé par la méfiance de certains enthousiastes envers leur rapprochement avec les sceptiques. Le problème vient peut-être de ce que ces modèles ne sont pas adaptés à l'analyse des problèmes de développement des pays du Sud. Cependant, les développements théoriques qui montrent que le protectionnisme des pays du Nord gêne le développement des pays du Sud reposent sur des mécanismes qui impliquent que la libéralisation n'est peut-être pas la meilleure solution pour assurer le développement des pays du Sud, contrairement aux recommandations des enthousiastes de suivre les règles de l'OMC. Ces outils ne permettent pas d'étendre l'accord entre sceptiques et enthousiastes. Cela est confirmé par l'examen des positions des sceptiques radicaux et même de certaines positions des sceptiques modérés. L'accord entre sceptiques et enthousiastes pour condamner le protectionnisme des pays du Nord ne s'étend donc pas à une analyse théorique du commerce international. Il n'est pas possible de condamner du protectionnisme des pays du Nord au nom de son effet sur les pays du Sud sans justifier le protectionnisme des pays du Sud.

Suggested Citation

  • Guillaume Daudin, 2003. "Tous unis contre le protectionnisme des pays du Nord ?," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03587708, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03587708
    DOI: 10.3917/reof.084.130
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-sciencespo.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03587708
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    Cited by:

    1. Guillaume Daudin, 2003. "La logistique de la mondialisation," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 87(4), pages 409-435.
    2. Guillaume Daudin, 2005. "Les transactions de la mondialisation," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 92(1), pages 221-262.
    3. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/686 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/688 is not listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Protectionnisme; Pays du Nord;

    JEL classification:

    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations

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