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Dynamics of multivariate default system in random environment

Author

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  • Nicole El Karoui

    (LPMA - Laboratoire de Probabilités et Modèles Aléatoires - UPMC - Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 - UPD7 - Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Monique Jeanblanc

    (LaMME - Laboratoire de Mathématiques et Modélisation d'Evry - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - UEVE - Université d'Évry-Val-d'Essonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Ying Jiao

    (SAF - Laboratoire de Sciences Actuarielle et Financière - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon)

Abstract

We consider a multivariate default system where random environmental information is available. We study the dynamics of the system in a general setting and adopt the point of view of change of probability measures. We also make a link with the density approach in the credit risk modelling. In the particular case where no environmental information is concerned, we pay a special attention to the phenomenon of system weakened by failures as in the classical reliability system.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicole El Karoui & Monique Jeanblanc & Ying Jiao, 2017. "Dynamics of multivariate default system in random environment," Post-Print hal-01205753, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01205753
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-01205753v2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Philippe Ehlers & Philipp Schönbucher, 2009. "Background filtrations and canonical loss processes for top-down models of portfolio credit risk," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 79-103, January.
    2. Jakob Sidenius & Vladimir Piterbarg & Leif Andersen, 2008. "A New Framework For Dynamic Credit Portfolio Loss Modelling," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(02), pages 163-197.
    3. El Karoui, Nicole & Jeanblanc, Monique & Jiao, Ying, 2010. "What happens after a default: The conditional density approach," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 120(7), pages 1011-1032, July.
    4. Xin Guo & Robert A. Jarrow & Yan Zeng, 2009. "Credit Risk Models with Incomplete Information," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 34(2), pages 320-332, May.
    5. Kay Giesecke & Lisa R. Goldberg & Xiaowei Ding, 2011. "A Top-Down Approach to Multiname Credit," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 59(2), pages 283-300, April.
    6. Amendinger, Jürgen, 2000. "Martingale representation theorems for initially enlarged filtrations," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 101-116, September.
    7. Robert A. Jarrow, 2009. "Credit Risk Models," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 37-68, November.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Monique Jeanblanc & Libo Li & Shiqi Song, 2018. "An enlargement of filtration formula with applications to multiple non-ordered default times," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 205-240, January.
    2. Delia Coculescu & Gabriele Visentin, 2017. "A default system with overspilling contagion," Papers 1709.09255, arXiv.org, revised May 2023.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    prediction process; Multiple defaults; density approach; change of probability measure;
    All these keywords.

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