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Calculating nuclear accident probabilities from empirical frequencies

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  • Minh Ha-Duong

    (USTH - University of Science and Technology of Hanoi, CIRED - centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • V. Journé

    (CIRED - centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

Since there is no authoritative, comprehensive and public historical record of nuclear power plant accidents, we reconstructed a nuclear accident data set from peer-reviewed and other literature. We found that, in a sample of five random years, the worldwide historical frequency of a nuclear major accident, defined as an INES level 7 event, is 14 %. The probability of at least one nuclear accident rated at level ≥4 on the INES scale is 67 %. These numbers are subject to uncertainties because of the fuzziness of the definition of a nuclear accident. © 2014 Springer Science+Business Media New York.

Suggested Citation

  • Minh Ha-Duong & V. Journé, 2014. "Calculating nuclear accident probabilities from empirical frequencies," Post-Print hal-01018478, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01018478
    DOI: 10.1007/s10669-014-9499-0
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-01018478v2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lina Escobar Rangel & François Lévêque, 2014. "How Fukushima Dai-ichi core meltdown changed the probability of nuclear accidents," Post-Print hal-01110974, HAL.
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    Cited by:

    1. Myriam Merad, 2014. "Expertise processes in risk assessment and management: How to improve their governance and their conduct?," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 181-182, June.
    2. Quentin Perrier, 2017. "The French Nuclear Bet," Working Papers 2017.18, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    3. Gribok, Andrei & Agarwal, Vivek & Yadav, Vaibhav, 2020. "Performance of empirical Bayes estimation techniques used in probabilistic risk assessment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    4. Spencer Wheatley & Benjamin Sovacool & Didier Sornette, 2017. "Of Disasters and Dragon Kings: A Statistical Analysis of Nuclear Power Incidents and Accidents," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(1), pages 99-115, January.
    5. Quentin Perrier, 2017. "The French nuclear bet," CIRED Working Papers halshs-01487296, HAL.
    6. Perrier, Quentin, 2018. "The second French nuclear bet," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 858-877.

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    Keywords

    nuclear accidents;

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