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Ultimate ruin probability in discrete time with Bühlmann credibility premium adjustments

Author

Listed:
  • Julien Trufin

    (Institut de Statistique, Biostatistique et Sciences Actuarielles (ISBA) - UCL - Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain)

  • Stéphane Loisel

    (SAF - Laboratoire de Sciences Actuarielle et Financière - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon)

Abstract

In this paper, we consider a discrete-time ruin model where experience rating is taken into account. The main objective is to determine the behavior of the ultimate ruin probabilities for large initial capital in the case of light-tailed claim amounts. The logarithmic asymptotic behavior of the ultimate ruin probability is derived. Typical pathes leading to ruin are studied. An upper bound is derived on the ultimate ruin probability in some particular case. The influence of the number of data points taken into account is analyzed, and numerical illustrations support the theoretical findings. Finally, we investigate the heavy-tailed case. The impact of the number of data points used for the premium calculation appears to be rather different from the one in the light-tailed case.

Suggested Citation

  • Julien Trufin & Stéphane Loisel, 2013. "Ultimate ruin probability in discrete time with Bühlmann credibility premium adjustments," Post-Print hal-00426790, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00426790
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-00426790
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rulliere, Didier & Loisel, Stephane, 2004. "Another look at the Picard-Lefevre formula for finite-time ruin probabilities," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 187-203, October.
    2. Asmussen, Søren & Klüppelberg, Claudia, 1996. "Large deviations results for subexponential tails, with applications to insurance risk," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 103-125, November.
    3. Muller, Alfred & Pflug, Georg, 2001. "Asymptotic ruin probabilities for risk processes with dependent increments," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 381-392, June.
    4. Dickson,David C. M., 2005. "Insurance Risk and Ruin," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521846400.
    5. Rob Kaas & Marc Goovaerts & Jan Dhaene & Michel Denuit, 2008. "Modern Actuarial Risk Theory," Springer Books, Springer, edition 2, number 978-3-540-70998-5, September.
    6. Claude Lefèvre & Stéphane Loisel, 2008. "On Finite-Time Ruin Probabilities for Classical Risk Models," Post-Print hal-00168958, HAL.
    7. Embrechts, P. & Veraverbeke, N., 1982. "Estimates for the probability of ruin with special emphasis on the possibility of large claims," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 55-72, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Landriault, David & Lemieux, Christiane & Willmot, Gordon E., 2012. "An adaptive premium policy with a Bayesian motivation in the classical risk model," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 370-378.
    2. Dutang, C. & Lefèvre, C. & Loisel, S., 2013. "On an asymptotic rule A+B/u for ultimate ruin probabilities under dependence by mixing," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 774-785.
    3. Osatakul, Dhiti & Li, Shuanming & Wu, Xueyuan, 2023. "Discrete-time risk models with surplus-dependent premium corrections," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 437(C).
    4. Li, Shu & Landriault, David & Lemieux, Christiane, 2015. "A risk model with varying premiums: Its risk management implications," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 38-46.

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