IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/gro/rugggd/gd-128.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

China and the World Economy:A Global Value Chain Perspective on Exports, Incomes and Jobs

Author

Listed:
  • Timmer, Marcel
  • Los, Bart
  • Vries, Gaaitzen J. de

    (Groningen University)

Abstract

Based on a new dataset of world input-output tables we analyze the impact of foreign demand on Chinese factor incomes and employment since 1995. We extend the global input-output methodology introduced by Johnson and Noguera (2012) and find that exports of value added rapidly increased after 2001, peaking at 28% of GDP in 2006. During this period the increase in foreign demand added about 70 million jobs, predominantly for unskilled workers. Due to strong domestic inter-industry linkages more than half of these jobs were created outside the manufacturing sector. Foreign demand generated income for domestic capital rather than for labor, as wages remained low. The current global economic crisis strengthens the process of reorientation of the Chinese economy, which appears to have started in 2006 already. Domestic final demand for non-tradables has become the main source of growth and the sources of export income steadily shifted away from mature markets to emerging markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Timmer, Marcel & Los, Bart & Vries, Gaaitzen J. de, 2012. "China and the World Economy:A Global Value Chain Perspective on Exports, Incomes and Jobs," GGDC Research Memorandum GD-128, Groningen Growth and Development Centre, University of Groningen.
    • Handle: RePEc:gro:rugggd:gd-128
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://irs.ub.rug.nl/ppn/356389014
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yuwan Duan & Cuihong Yang & Kunfu Zhu & Xikang Chen, 2012. "Does the Domestic Value Added Induced by China's Exports Really Belong to China?," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 20(5), pages 83-102, September.
    2. de Vries, Gaaitzen J. & Erumban, Abdul A. & Timmer, Marcel P. & Voskoboynikov, Ilya & Wu, Harry X., 2012. "Deconstructing the BRICs: Structural transformation and aggregate productivity growth," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 211-227.
    3. Umed Temurshoev & Marcel P. Timmer, 2011. "Joint estimation of supply and use tables," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 90(4), pages 863-882, November.
    4. World Bank, 2011. "World Development Report 2011 [Rapport sur le développement dans le monde 2011 : Conflits, sécurité et développement - Abrégé]," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 4389, December.
    5. Jason Dedrick & Kenneth L. Kraemer & Greg Linden, 2010. "Who profits from innovation in global value chains? A study of the iPod and notebook PCs," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 19(1), pages 81-116, February.
    6. Brandt, Loren & Van Biesebroeck, Johannes & Zhang, Yifan, 2012. "Creative accounting or creative destruction? Firm-level productivity growth in Chinese manufacturing," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 339-351.
    7. Robert C. Feenstra & Chang Hong, 2010. "China's Exports and Employment," NBER Chapters, in: China's Growing Role in World Trade, pages 167-199, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Gordon H. Hanson, 2012. "The Rise of Middle Kingdoms: Emerging Economies in Global Trade," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 41-64, Spring.
    9. Barro, Robert J. & Lee, Jong Wha, 2013. "A new data set of educational attainment in the world, 1950–2010," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 184-198.
    10. Sheng, Liugang & Yang, Dennis T., 2017. "Offshoring and Wage Inequality: Theory and Evidence from China," IZA Discussion Papers 10924, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    11. Rudolfs Bems & Robert C. Johnson & Kei-Mu Yi, 2011. "Vertical Linkages and the Collapse of Global Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(3), pages 308-312, May.
    12. Chen, Xikang & Cheng, Leonard K. & Fung, K.C. & Lau, Lawrence J. & Sung, Yun-Wing & Zhu, K. & Yang, C. & Pei, J. & Duan, Y., 2012. "Domestic value added and employment generated by Chinese exports: A quantitative estimation," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 850-864.
    13. World Bank, 2012. "World Development Report 2013 [Rapport sur le développement dans le monde 2013]," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 11843, December.
    14. Barry Bosworth & Susan M. Collins, 2008. "Accounting for Growth: Comparing China and India," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(1), pages 45-66, Winter.
    15. World Bank, 2012. "World Development Report 2012 [Rapport sur le développement dans le monde 2012]," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 4391, December.
    16. Robert Koopman & William Powers & Zhi Wang & Shang-Jin Wei, 2010. "Give Credit Where Credit Is Due: Tracing Value Added in Global Production Chains," NBER Working Papers 16426, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Johnson, Robert C. & Noguera, Guillermo, 2012. "Accounting for intermediates: Production sharing and trade in value added," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 224-236.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:ilo:ilowps:485511 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Chen, Liming & Felipe, Jesus & Kam, Andrew J.Y. & Mehta, Aashish, 2021. "Is employment globalizing?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 74-92.
    3. Rosario Cervantes-Martínez & Jorge Villaseñor-Becerra & Martín Romero-Morett, 2016. "NAFTA trade (and some extra NAFTA trade) in value added and its distribution, 1995–2011," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 5(1), pages 1-22, December.
    4. Jiang, Xiao., 2013. "Trade and employment in a vertically specialized world," ILO Working Papers 994855113402676, International Labour Organization.
    5. Xiao JIANG, 2015. "Employment effects of trade in intermediate and final goods: An empirical assessment," International Labour Review, International Labour Organization, vol. 154(2), pages 147-164, June.
    6. Erik Dietzenbacher & Bart Los & Robert Stehrer & Marcel Timmer & Gaaitzen de Vries, 2013. "The Construction Of World Input-Output Tables In The Wiod Project," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 71-98, March.
    7. Nadia Garbellini & Enrico Marelli & Ariel Luis Wirkierman, 2014. "Domestic demand and global production in the Eurozone: A multi-regional input-output assessment of the global crisis," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(3), pages 336-364, May.
    8. Fujii Gambero, Gerardo & Cervantes M., Rosario & Fabián Rojas, Ana Sofía, 2016. "The labour content of Mexican manufactures, 2008 and 2012," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:dgr:rugggd:gd-128 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Los, Bart & Timmer, Marcel P. & de Vries, Gaaitzen J., 2015. "How important are exports for job growth in China? A demand side analysis," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 19-32.
    3. João Amador & Sónia Cabral, 2014. "Global Value Chains: Surveying Drivers, Measures and Impacts," Working Papers w201403, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    4. repec:dgr:rugggd:gd-144 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Martin Borowiecki & Bernhard Dachs & Doris Hanzl-Weiss & Steffen Kinkel & Johannes Pöschl & Magdolna Sass & Thomas Christian Schmall & Robert Stehrer & Andrea Szalavetz, 2012. "Global Value Chains and the EU Industry," wiiw Research Reports 383, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    6. repec:dgr:rugggd:gd-135 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Jong-Wha Lee, 2017. "China's economic growth and convergence," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(11), pages 2455-2474, November.
    8. Baldwin, Richard & Freeman, Rebecca & Theodorakopoulos, Angelos, 2022. "Horses for courses: measuring foreign supply chain exposure," Bank of England working papers 996, Bank of England.
    9. Marcel P. Timmer & Abdul Azeez Erumban & Bart Los & Robert Stehrer & Gaaitzen J. de Vries, 2014. "Slicing Up Global Value Chains," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(2), pages 99-118, Spring.
    10. Andrea Coveri & Elena Paglialunga & Antonello Zanfei, 2023. "Global value chains, functional diversification and within-country inequality: an empirical assessment," Working Papers 2302, University of Urbino Carlo Bo, Department of Economics, Society & Politics - Scientific Committee - L. Stefanini & G. Travaglini, revised 2023.
    11. Vrh, Nataša, 2015. "Pay-off to Participation in Global Value Chains: How Much are New EU Member States Lagging behind the Rest of EU Countries in Terms of Domestic Value Added in Exports?," MPRA Paper 67805, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Duan, Yuwan & Dietzenbacher, Erik & Los, Bart & Yang, Cuihong, 2021. "How much did China's emergence as “the world's factory” contribute to its national income?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    13. Marcel P. Timmer & Erik Dietzenbacher & Bart Los & Robert Stehrer & Gaaitzen J. Vries, 2015. "An Illustrated User Guide to the World Input–Output Database: the Case of Global Automotive Production," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 575-605, August.
    14. C. Veeramani & Garima Dhir, 2019. "Reaping gains from global production sharing: Domestic value addition and job creation by Indian exports," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2019-024, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    15. Mai, Nhat Chi, 2022. "Capital Raising and Management of Vietnamese Small and Medium Sized Enterprises after Integrating into Global Economy," OSF Preprints dv68m, Center for Open Science.
    16. Elisabetta Lodigiani & Sara Salomone, 2015. "Migration-induced Transfers of Norms. Political Empowerment?The case of Female Political Empowerment," Working Papers 2015:19, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    17. Robert Stehrer, 2012. "Trade in Value Added and the Valued Added in Trade," wiiw Working Papers 81, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    18. Garbellini, Nadia, 2021. "International trade as a process of choice of technique," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 42-50.
    19. Elisabetta LODIGIANI & Sara SALOMONE, 2020. "Migration-induced transfers of norms: the case of female political empowerment," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 86(4), pages 435-477, December.
    20. Doan, Ngoc Thang, 2023. "Cultural proximity and global value chains," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 106-120.
    21. João Amador & Sónia Cabral, 2017. "Networks of Value-added Trade," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(7), pages 1291-1313, July.
    22. Henryk Gurgul & Lukasz Lach, 2016. "Comparative advantage of the EU in global value chains: How important and efficient are new EU members in transition?," Managerial Economics, AGH University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 17(1), pages 21-58.
    23. Gordon H. Hanson, 2012. "The Rise of Middle Kingdoms: Emerging Economies in Global Trade," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 41-64, Spring.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gro:rugggd:gd-128. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Hanneke Tamling (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ferugnl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.