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Limits of Floats: The Role of Foreign Currency Debt and Import Structure

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Abstract

A traditional argument in favor of flexible exchange rates is that they insulate output better from real shocks, because the exchange rate can adjust and stabilize demand for domestic goods through expenditure switching. This argument is weakened in a model with high foreign currency debt and low exchange rate pass through to import prices. We analyze the transmission of real external shocks to the domestic economy under fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes for a broad sample of countries in a Panel VAR and let the responses vary with foreign currency indebtedness and import structure. We find that flexible exchange rates do not insulate output better from external shocks if the country imports mainly low pass-through goods and can even amplify the output response if foreign indebtedness is high.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies in its series IHEID Working Papers with number 01-2010.

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Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: 10 Jan 2010
Date of revision: Jan 2010
Handle: RePEc:gii:giihei:heidwp01-2010

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Keywords: Exchange Rate Regimes; Balance Sheet Effects; Pass-through; Interacted Panel VAR; External Shocks;

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Cited by:
  1. Lahura, Erick & Vega, Marco, 2013. "Regímenes Cambiarios y Desempeño Macroeconómico: Una Evaluación de la Literatura," Working Papers 2013-006, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
  2. Aiyar, Shekhar & Calomiris , Charles W & Wieladek, Tomasz, 2012. "Does macropru leak? Evidence from a UK policy experiment," Bank of England working papers 445, Bank of England.
  3. Sa, Filipa & Towbin, Pascal & wieladek, tomasz, 2011. "Low interest rates and housing booms: the role of capital inflows, monetary policy and financial innovation," Bank of England working papers 411, Bank of England.
  4. Abbritti, Mirko & Weber, Sebastian, 2010. "Labor market institutions and the business cycle Unemployment rigidities vs. real wage rigidities," Working Paper Series 1183, European Central Bank.

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