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Forecasting Private Consumption Structure in European Countries: SKIM Model Results and Comparison with other Approaches

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  • Arranz, M.

Abstract

Our analysis was performed with data from 10 EEC countries in the period 1962-86 and is devoted to the changes in the structure of private consumption with respect to eight commodity groups. We began with eleven different approaches from which we chose four. In turn we then compared them with the SKIM model. A total of 880 equations have been estimated during the period 1962-84 and from that source of information we evaluated the forecasting accuracy for the period 1984-86. The main conclusion is that the Skim model, presented in this paper, generally performs better than the other models considered (Rotterdam, loglinear, LES, Deaton and Muellbauer, etc.) Una versión actualizada de este documento está disponible gratuitamente en la serie de documentos "Economic Development" de la Asociación Euroamericana de Estudios de Desarrollo Económico, con el número 54. http://www.usc.es/economet/aea.htm An updated version of this paper is downloadable free in the series "Economic Development" edited by the Euro-American Association of Economic Development Studies, with the number 54. http://www.usc.es/economet/eaa.htm

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Universidad de Santiago de Compostela, Faculty of Economics, Applied Econometric and Quantitative Studies in its series Faculty of Economics with number 04.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: 1996
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fth:scaeqs:04

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Keywords: Forecast; Consumption; Europe; Models;

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  1. Barten, A. P., 1969. "Maximum likelihood estimation of a complete system of demand equations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 7-73.
  2. Deaton, Angus S & Muellbauer, John, 1980. "An Almost Ideal Demand System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 312-26, June.
  3. Guisan, M.Carmen, 2001. "Causality and Cointegration between Consumption and GDP in 25 OECD countries: limitations of cointegration approach," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 1(1), pages 39-61.
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Cited by:
  1. Guisan, M.C. & Arranz, M., 2001. "Consumption expenditure on Health and Education: Econometric models and evolution of OECD countries 1970-96," Economic Development 50, University of Santiago de Compostela. Faculty of Economics and Business. Econometrics..

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