Forecasting Private Consumption Structure in European Countries: SKIM Model Results and Comparison with other Approaches
AbstractOur analysis was performed with data from 10 EEC countries in the period 1962-86 and is devoted to the changes in the structure of private consumption with respect to eight commodity groups. We began with eleven different approaches from which we chose four. In turn we then compared them with the SKIM model. A total of 880 equations have been estimated during the period 1962-84 and from that source of information we evaluated the forecasting accuracy for the period 1984-86. The main conclusion is that the Skim model, presented in this paper, generally performs better than the other models considered (Rotterdam, loglinear, LES, Deaton and Muellbauer, etc.) Una versión actualizada de este documento está disponible gratuitamente en la serie de documentos "Economic Development" de la Asociación Euroamericana de Estudios de Desarrollo Económico, con el número 54. http://www.usc.es/economet/aea.htm An updated version of this paper is downloadable free in the series "Economic Development" edited by the Euro-American Association of Economic Development Studies, with the number 54. http://www.usc.es/economet/eaa.htm
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Universidad de Santiago de Compostela, Faculty of Economics, Applied Econometric and Quantitative Studies in its series Faculty of Economics with number 04.
Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: 1996
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Web page: http://www.usc.es/economet/eaa.htm
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Forecast; Consumption; Europe; Models;
Other versions of this item:
- Arranz, M., 2002. "Forecasting Private Consumption Structure in European Countries: SKIM Model Results and Comparison with other Approaches," Economic Development 54, University of Santiago de Compostela. Faculty of Economics and Business. Econometrics..
- E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Barten, A. P., 1969. "Maximum likelihood estimation of a complete system of demand equations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 7-73.
- Deaton, Angus S & Muellbauer, John, 1980. "An Almost Ideal Demand System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 312-26, June.
- Guisan, M.Carmen, 2001. "Causality and Cointegration between Consumption and GDP in 25 OECD countries: limitations of cointegration approach," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 1(1), pages 39-61.
- Guisan, M.C. & Arranz, M., 2001. "Consumption expenditure on Health and Education: Econometric models and evolution of OECD countries 1970-96," Economic Development 50, University of Santiago de Compostela. Faculty of Economics and Business. Econometrics..
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