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The Stock Market in the Overlapping Generations

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  • Michael Magill
  • Martine Quinzii

Abstract

This paper studies a simple OLG model with production under the assumption that capital investment is completely irreversible: installed capital cannot be transformed back into consumption good nor transferred from one firm to another. Since firms cannot be dismantled at each generational change without loosing their value, their ownership is transmitted from generations to generations through a stock market. The paper shows that the financial price of a firm can be lower than the replacement value of its capital without creating arbitrage or dampening the incentives to invest. This possibility changes the long-run behavior of the equilibrium, but only for economies with under-accumulation. In the stock market dynamics these economies have two steady states, the Diamond steady state and the Golden Rule. The Diamond steady stable is locally saddle-point stable and can be reached by only one trajectory on which the financial price and replacement value of firms coincide at all times. All other trajectories on which there is a discount on equity converge (when they converge) to the Golden Rule which is locally stable: the discount on equity has the same effect as an increase of the savings of the young, which lowers the interest rate, and increases investment and wages at the next generation, a virtuous cycle which leads to the efficient long-run steady state. On all these trajectories the equity prices are larger than the fundamental value of future dividends and thus include a bubble component.

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Paper provided by California Davis - Department of Economics in its series Department of Economics with number 99-13.

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Handle: RePEc:fth:caldec:99-13

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  1. Rhee, Changyong, 1991. "Dynamic Inefficiency in an Economy with Land," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(4), pages 791-97, July.
  2. Pingle, Mark & Tesfatsion, Leigh, 1998. "Active Intermediation In Overlapping Generations Economies With Production And Unsecured Debt," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(02), pages 183-212, June.
  3. Magill, Michael & Quinzii, Martine, 1996. "Incomplete markets over an infinite horizon: Long-lived securities and speculative bubbles," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 133-170.
  4. Andrew Abel & Gregory N. Mankiw & Lawrence H. Summers & Richard Zeckhauser, . "Assessing Dynamic Efficiency: Theory and Evidence," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 14-88, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  5. Galor, Oded & Ryder, Harl E., 1989. "Existence, uniqueness, and stability of equilibrium in an overlapping-generations model with productive capital," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 360-375, December.
  6. Tobin, James, 1969. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, February.
  7. Uzawa, H, 1969. "Time Preference and the Penrose Effect in a Two-Class Model of Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(4), pages 628-52, Part II, .
  8. Tirole, Jean, 1982. "On the Possibility of Speculation under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1163-81, September.
  9. Manuel S. Santos & Michael Woodford, 1997. "Rational Asset Pricing Bubbles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(1), pages 19-58, January.
  10. Tirole, Jean, 1985. "Asset Bubbles and Overlapping Generations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1499-1528, November.
  11. Robert E. Lucas & Jr., 1967. "Adjustment Costs and the Theory of Supply," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75, pages 321.
  12. Weil, Philippe, 1987. "Confidence and the Real Value of Money in an Overlapping Generations Economy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 102(1), pages 1-22, February.
  13. Gale, David, 1973. "Pure exchange equilibrium of dynamic economic models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 12-36, February.
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Cited by:
  1. Koskela, Erkki & Ollikainen, Markku & Puhakka, Mikk0, 2001. "Renewable Resources in an Overlapping Generations Economy without Capital," Discussion Papers 751, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.

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