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Sparse Trend Estimation

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Abstract

The low-frequency movements of economic variables play a prominent role in policy analysis and decision-making. We develop a robust estimation approach for these slow-moving trend processes that is guided by a judicious choice of priors and characterized by sparsity. We present novel stylized facts from longer-run survey expectations that inform the structure of the estimation procedure. The general version of the proposed Bayesian estimator with a spike-and-slab prior accounts explicitly for cyclical dynamics. We show that it performs well in simulations against relevant benchmarks and report empirical estimates of trend growth for U.S. output and annual mean temperature.

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  • Richard K. Crump & Nikolay Gospodinov & Hunter Wieman, 2023. "Sparse Trend Estimation," Staff Reports 1049, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:95589
    Note: Revised March 2024.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    sparsity; Bayesian inference; latent variable models; trend output growth; slow-moving trends;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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