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Technology Adoption, Mortality, and Population Dynamics

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Abstract

We develop a quantitative theory of mortality and population dynamics. We emphasize individuals' decisions to reduce their mortality by adopting better health technology. Adoption becomes cheaper as more individuals use better technology. It also confers a dynamic externality by increasing the future number of individuals who use the better technology. Our model generates a diffusion curve whose shape dictates the pace of mortality reduction. The model explains historical trends in mortality rates and life expectancies at various ages and population dynamics in Western Europe. Unlike Malthusian theories based solely on income, ours is consistent with the observed disconnect between mortality and income. Unlike Beckerian theories based solely on fertility, ours accounts for the observed acceleration in population.

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  • John P. Hejkal & B. Ravikumar & Guillaume Vandenbroucke, 2020. "Technology Adoption, Mortality, and Population Dynamics," Working Papers 2020-039, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised Feb 2024.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:88989
    DOI: 10.20955/wp.2020.039
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rosen, Sherwin, 1988. "The Value of Changes in Life Expectancy," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 285-304, September.
    2. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson, 2007. "Disease and Development: The Effect of Life Expectancy on Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(6), pages 925-985, December.
    3. Oksana M. Leukhina & Stephen J. Turnovsky, 2016. "Population Size Effects in the Structural Development of England," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(3), pages 195-229, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Guillaume Vandenbroucke, 2021. "The Association Between Poverty and Mortality," Economic Synopses, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue 26, pages 1-2, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    mortality; life expectancy; population dynamics; technology diffusion; convergence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • I15 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Economic Development
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical

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