IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedgif/437.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

War and peace: recovering the market's probability distribution of crude oil futures prices during the Gulf crisis

Author

Listed:
  • William R. Melick
  • Charles P. Thomas

Abstract

This paper investigates the market's expectations for oil prices during the Persian Gulf crisis. To do so a general method for using options markets to recover the implied distribution for futures prices is developed. The method applies to a wide class of distributions. In particular, it is not limited to those distributions arising from diffusion or jump-diffusion processes.

Suggested Citation

  • William R. Melick & Charles P. Thomas, 1992. "War and peace: recovering the market's probability distribution of crude oil futures prices during the Gulf crisis," International Finance Discussion Papers 437, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:437
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/1992/437/default.htm
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/1992/437/ifdp437.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bates, D.S., 1990. "The Crash Of '87: Was It Expected? The Evidence From Options Markets," Weiss Center Working Papers 28-90, Wharton School - Weiss Center for International Financial Research.
    2. James A. Overdahl & H. Lee Matthews, 1988. "The Use of NYMEX Options to Forecast Crude Oil Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4).
    3. David S. Bates, "undated". "The Crash of '87: Was it Expected? The Evidence from Options Markets," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 28-90, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    4. Cox, John C. & Ross, Stephen A., 1976. "The valuation of options for alternative stochastic processes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 145-166.
    5. Barone-Adesi, Giovanni & Whaley, Robert E, 1987. "Efficient Analytic Approximation of American Option Values," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 301-320, June.
    6. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    7. Black, Fischer, 1976. "The pricing of commodity contracts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 167-179.
    8. Trevor S. Breusch, 1986. "Hypothesis Testing in Unidentified Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 53(4), pages 635-651.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Datta, Deepa Dhume & Londono, Juan M. & Ross, Landon J., 2017. "Generating options-implied probability densities to understand oil market events," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 440-457.
    2. William R. Melick & Charles P. Thomas, 1996. "Using options prices to infer PDF'S for asset prices: an application to oil prices during the Gulf crisis," International Finance Discussion Papers 541, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Michael P. Leahy & Charles P. Thomas, 1996. "The sovereignty option: the Quebec referendum and market views on the Canadian dollar," International Finance Discussion Papers 555, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Michael P. Leahy & Charles P. Thomas, 1996. "The sovereignty option: the Quebec referendum and market views on the Canadian dollar," International Finance Discussion Papers 555, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    3. Mondher Bellalah, 2009. "Derivatives, Risk Management & Value," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 7175.
    4. Carl Chiarella & Xue-Zhong He & Christina Sklibosios Nikitopoulos, 2015. "Derivative Security Pricing," Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, Springer, edition 127, number 978-3-662-45906-5, July-Dece.
    5. Robert Tompkins, 2001. "Implied volatility surfaces: uncovering regularities for options on financial futures," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(3), pages 198-230.
    6. Rodriguez, Ricardo J., 2002. "Lognormal option pricing for arbitrary underlying assets: a synthesis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 577-586.
    7. Christoffersen, Peter & Jacobs, Kris & Chang, Bo Young, 2013. "Forecasting with Option-Implied Information," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 581-656, Elsevier.
    8. Back, Janis & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Rudolf, Markus, 2013. "Seasonality and the valuation of commodity options," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 273-290.
    9. Jérôme Detemple, 2014. "Optimal Exercise for Derivative Securities," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 6(1), pages 459-487, December.
    10. Cristina Mihaela Onica & Nicoleta Ghilic & Maria-Gabriela Chirita, 2015. "News And Perspectives On Accounting And Econometric Modeling Cash Flow Indicators In The Companies Listed On The Capital Market," Risk in Contemporary Economy, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, pages 435-443.
    11. Suresh M. Sundaresan, 2000. "Continuous‐Time Methods in Finance: A Review and an Assessment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1569-1622, August.
    12. Guimaraes, Jonathan S. & Cruz, Jose Cesar, 2017. "Future volatility forecast in agricultural commodity markets," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258480, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    13. Calum G. Turvey, 2005. "The pricing of degree‐day weather options," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 65(1), pages 59-85, May.
    14. Gibson, Rajna & Lhabitant, Francois-Serge & Talay, Denis, 2010. "Modeling the Term Structure of Interest Rates: A Review of the Literature," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 5(1–2), pages 1-156, December.
    15. Frans De Roon & Chris Veld, 1996. "An empirical investigation of the factors that determine the pricing of Dutch index warrants," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 2(1), pages 97-112, March.
    16. Lahrech, Mohamed Taha & Benabdellah, Majid & Dehhaoui, Mohammed & Benchekroun, Fayçal, 2018. "Evaluation des options financières : revue de littérature et explication intuitive des méthodes de calcul [Evaluation of financial options: literature review and intuitive explanation of the calcul," MPRA Paper 95486, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Jondeau, Eric & Rockinger, Michael, 2000. "Reading the smile: the message conveyed by methods which infer risk neutral densities," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 885-915, December.
    18. Calum G. Turvey & Shihong Yin, 2002. "On the Pricing of Cross Currency Futures Options for Canadian Grains and Livestock," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 50(3), pages 317-332, November.
    19. David S. Bates, 1995. "Testing Option Pricing Models," NBER Working Papers 5129, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Gabriele Fiorentini & Angel León & Gonzalo Rubio, "undated". "Short-term options with stochastic volatility: Estimation and empirical performance," Studies on the Spanish Economy 02, FEDEA.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:437. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ryan Wolfslayer ; Keisha Fournillier (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbgvus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.