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Visible Hands: Professional Asset Managers' Expectations and the Stock Market in China

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Abstract

We study how professional fund managers' growth expectations affect the actions they take with respect to equity investment and in turn the effects on prices. Using novel data on China's mutual fund managers' growth expectations, we show that pessimistic managers decrease equity allocations and shift away from more-cyclical stocks. We identify a strong short-run causal effect of growth expectations on stock returns, despite statistically significant delays in price discovery from short-sale constraints. Finally, we find that an earnings-based measure of price informativeness is increasing in fund investment.

Suggested Citation

  • John Ammer & John H. Rogers & Gang Wang & Yang Yu, 2022. "Visible Hands: Professional Asset Managers' Expectations and the Stock Market in China," International Finance Discussion Papers 1362, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:1362
    DOI: 10.17016/IFDP.2022.1362
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Harrison Hong & Jeremy C. Stein, 2003. "Differences of Opinion, Short-Sales Constraints, and Market Crashes," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(2), pages 487-525.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    mutual fund managers; chinese financial markets; economic growth expectations; price informativeness; textual analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

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