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Recession Risk and the Excess Bond Premium

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Abstract

In this FEDS Note, we evaluate the information content for recession risk of a component of credit spreads that is not directly attributable to expected default risk and thus to news about future cash flows.

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  • Giovanni Favara & Simon Gilchrist & Kurt F. Lewis & Egon Zakrajšek, 2016. "Recession Risk and the Excess Bond Premium," FEDS Notes 2016-04-08, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfn:2016-04-08
    DOI: 10.17016/2380-7172.1739
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    File URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/notes/feds-notes/2016/recession-risk-and-the-excess-bond-premium-20160408.html
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    Cited by:

    1. Marek Jarociński & Peter Karadi, 2020. "Deconstructing Monetary Policy Surprises—The Role of Information Shocks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 1-43, April.
    2. David A. Mascio & Frank J. Fabozzi & J. Kenton Zumwalt, 2021. "Market timing using combined forecasts and machine learning," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(1), pages 1-16, January.
    3. Nadav Ben Zeev, 2019. "Adjustable-Rate Mortgages, Systematic Monetary Policy, And The Root Cause Of The Financial Crisis," Working Papers 1908, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics.
    4. Nadav Ben Zeev, 2019. "Asymmetric Business Cycles In Emerging Market Economies," Working Papers 1909, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics.
    5. Ercolani, Valerio & Natoli, Filippo, 2020. "Forecasting US recessions: The role of economic uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    6. Fackler, James S. & McMillin, W. Douglas, 2020. "Nominal GDP versus price level targeting: An empirical evaluation," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    7. Natalya Zelenyuk & Robert Faff & Shams Pathan, 2020. "Size‐conditioned mandatory capital adequacy disclosure and bank intermediation," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(4), pages 4387-4417, December.
    8. Carabarín Aguirre Mauricio & Peláez Gómez Carlos D., 2021. "Financial Frictions in Mexico: Evidence from the Credit Spread and its Components," Working Papers 2021-20, Banco de México.
    9. Melina, Giovanni & Villa, Stefania, 2023. "Drivers of large recessions and monetary policy responses," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    10. Ben Zeev, Nadav, 2019. "Global credit supply shocks and exchange rate regimes," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 1-32.
    11. Matthieu Bussière & Stéphane Lhuissier, 2024. "What does an inversion of the yield curve tell us? [Que signifie l’inversion d’une courbe des taux ?]," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 250.
    12. Ki Young Park, 2018. "New Evidence on Procyclical Bank Capital Regulation: The Role of Bank Loan Commitments," Working papers 2018rwp-130, Yonsei University, Yonsei Economics Research Institute.
    13. Nadav Ben Zeev, 2018. "The Tfp Channel Of Credit Supply Shocks," Working Papers 1802, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics.
    14. Horn, Carl-Wolfram & Fischer, Johannes J., 2021. "Does Monetary Policy Affect Mergers and Acquisitions?," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242445, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    15. Pavel S. Kapinos, 2021. "Monetary policy news and systemic risk at the zero lower bound," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 4932-4945, October.
    16. Marek Jarocinski & Peter Karadi, 2017. "Central Bank Information Shocks," 2017 Meeting Papers 1193, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    17. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan, 2021. "Vermögenspreise, Zinseffekte und die Robustheit der öffentlichen Finanzen in Deutschland - eine Szenario-Analyse," Kieler Beiträge zur Wirtschaftspolitik 36, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    18. Pablo A. Cuba-Borda & Alexander Mechanick & Andrea Raffo, 2018. "Monitoring the World Economy: A Global Conditions Index," IFDP Notes 2018-06-15, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. Hiroyuki Kubota & Ichiro Muto & Mototsugu Shintani, 2022. "Monetary Policy, Labor Force Participation, and Wage Rigidity," IMES Discussion Paper Series 22-E-17, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    20. Nadav Ben Zeev, 2017. "Exchange Rate Regimes And Sudden Stops," Working Papers 1712, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics.
    21. Lhuissier Stéphane & Nguyen Benoît, 2021. "The Dynamic Effects of the ECB’s Asset Purchases: a Survey-Based Identification," Working papers 806, Banque de France.

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