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The Skewness of the Price Change Distribution : A New Touchstone for Sticky Price Models

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Abstract

We present a new way of empirically evaluating various sticky price models used to assess the degree of monetary non-neutrality. While menu cost models uniformly predict that price change skewness and dispersion fall with inflation, in the Calvo model both rise. However, CPI price data from the late 1970's onwards shows that skewness does not fall with inflation, while dispersion does. We develop a random menu cost model that, with a menu cost distribution that has a strong Calvo feature, can match the empirical patterns found. The model therefore exhibits much more monetary non-neutrality than existing menu cost models.

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  • Shaowen Luo & Daniel Villar Vallenas, 2017. "The Skewness of the Price Change Distribution : A New Touchstone for Sticky Price Models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-028, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2017-28
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2017.028
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    Cited by:

    1. Hong, Gee Hee & Klepacz, Matthew & Pasten, Ernesto & Schoenle, Raphael, 2023. "The real effects of monetary shocks: Evidence from micro pricing moments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 1-20.
    2. Karadi, Peter & Schoenle, Raphael & Wursten, Jesse, 2020. "Measuring Price Selection in Microdata - It's Not There," CEPR Discussion Papers 15383, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Jeremy J. Nalewaik, 2016. "Inflation Expectations and the Stabilization of Inflation : Alternative Hypotheses," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-035, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Berger, David & Vavra, Joseph, 2018. "Dynamics of the U.S. price distribution," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 60-82.
    5. Thiago Revil T. Ferreira, 2018. "Stock Market Cross-Sectional Skewness and Business Cycle Fluctuations," International Finance Discussion Papers 1223, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Erwan Gautier & Hervé Le Bihan, 2018. "Shocks vs Menu Costs: Patterns of Price Rigidity in an Estimated Multi-Sector Menu-Cost Model," 2018 Meeting Papers 248, Society for Economic Dynamics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; Monetary policy; Prices; business fluctuations; and cycles;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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