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Trading activity and price volatility in the municipal bond market

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Author Info
Chris Downing
Frank Zhang
Abstract

Utilizing a comprehensive database of transactions in municipal bonds, we investigate the volume-volatility relationship in the muni market. We find a positive relationship between the number of transactions and a bond's price volatility. In contrast to previous studies, we find a negative relationship between average deal size and price volatility. These results are found to be robust throughout the sample. Our results are inconsistent with current theoretical models of the volume-volatility relationship. These inconsistencies may arise because current models fail to account for the effects of overall market liquidity on the costs of large transactions.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 2002-39.

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Date of creation: 2002
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2002-39

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Related research
Keywords: Bonds ; Prices;

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Epps, Thomas W & Epps, Mary Lee, 1976. "The Stochastic Dependence of Security Price Changes and Transaction Volumes: Implications for the Mixture-of-Distributions Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(2), pages 305-21, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Parkinson, Michael, 1980. "The Extreme Value Method for Estimating the Variance of the Rate of Return," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(1), pages 61-65, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Schwert, G William, 1989. " Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change over Time?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(5), pages 1115-53, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Jones, Charles M & Kaul, Gautam & Lipson, Marc L, 1994. "Transactions, Volume, and Volatility," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(4), pages 631-51. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Garman, Mark B & Klass, Michael J, 1980. "On the Estimation of Security Price Volatilities from Historical Data," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(1), pages 67-78, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Brennan, Michael J & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 1998. "The Determinants of Average Trade Size," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71(1), pages 1-25, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Harris, Milton & Raviv, Artur, 1993. "Differences of Opinion Make a Horse Race," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 473-506. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-35, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Gallant, A Ronald & Rossi, Peter E & Tauchen, George, 1992. "Stock Prices and Volume," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 199-242. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Karpoff, Jonathan M., 1987. "The Relation between Price Changes and Trading Volume: A Survey," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(01), pages 109-126, March. [Downloadable!]
  11. Robert T. Daigler & Marilyn K. Wiley, 1999. "The Impact of Trader Type on the Futures Volatility-Volume Relation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(6), pages 2297-2316, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Anat R. Admati, Paul Pfleiderer, 1988. "A Theory of Intraday Patterns: Volume and Price Variability," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 3-40. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Gregory R. Duffee, 1998. "The Relation Between Treasury Yields and Corporate Bond Yield Spreads," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(6), pages 2225-2241, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Tauchen, George E & Pitts, Mark, 1983. "The Price Variability-Volume Relationship on Speculative Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(2), pages 485-505, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Holden, Craig W & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 1992. " Long-Lived Private Information and Imperfect Competition," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(1), pages 247-70, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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