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Forecasts from Reduced-form Models under the Zero-Lower-Bound Constraint

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  • Mehmet Pasaogullari

Abstract

In this paper, I consider forecasting from a reduced-form VAR under the zero lower bound (ZLB) for the short-term nominal interest rate. I develop a method that a) computes the exact moments for the first n + 1 periods when n previous periods are tracked and b) approximates moments for the periods beyond n + 1 period using techniques for truncated normal distributions and approximations a la Kim (1994). I show that the algorithm produces satisfactory results for VAR systems with moderate to high persistence even when only one previous period is tracked. For very persistent VAR systems, however, tracking more periods is needed in order to obtain reliable approximations. I also show that the method is suitable for affine term-structure modeling, where the underlying state vector includes the short-term interest rate as in Taylor rules with inertia.

Suggested Citation

  • Mehmet Pasaogullari, 2015. "Forecasts from Reduced-form Models under the Zero-Lower-Bound Constraint," Working Papers (Old Series) 1512, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcwp:1512
    DOI: 10.26509/frbc-wp-201512
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Gordon, Grey & Guerrón-Quintana, Pablo & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan F., 2015. "Nonlinear adventures at the zero lower bound," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 182-204.
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    5. Leo Krippner, 2011. "Modifying Gaussian term structure models when interest rates are near the zero lower bound," CAMA Working Papers 2011-36, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    6. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Michael Woodford, 2003. "The Zero Bound on Interest Rates and Optimal Monetary Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 139-235.
    7. Marcel A. Priebsch, 2013. "Computing arbitrage-free yields in multi-factor Gaussian shadow-rate term structure models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-63, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary policy; forecasting from VARs; zero lower bound; normal mixtures;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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