Expected returns to stock investments by angel investors in groups
AbstractAngel investors invest billions of dollars in thousands of entrepreneurial projects annually, far more than the number of firms that obtain venture capital. Previous research has calculated realized internal rates of return on angel investments, but empirical estimates of expected returns have not yet been produced. Although calculations of realized returns are a valuable contribution, expected returns, rather than realized returns, drive investment decisions. We use a new data set and statistical framework to produce the first empirical estimates of expected returns on angel investments. We also allow for the time value of money, which previous research has typically ignored. Our sample of 588 investments spans the 1972–2007 period and contains 419 exited investments. We conduct extensive tests to explore potential bias in the data set and conclude that the evidence in favor of bias is tenuous at best. Our results suggest that angel investors in groups can expect to earn returns that are on the order of returns on venture capital investments. Estimated net returns are about 70 percent in excess of the riskless rate per year for an average holding period of 3.67 years. This estimate is reasonable compared to Cochrane's (2005) estimate of 59 percent per year for venture capital investments, which tend to be in lower-variance, later-stage projects. Returns have a large variance and are heavily skewed, with many losses and occasional extraordinarily high returns.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta in its series Working Paper with number 2010-14.
Date of creation: 2010
Date of revision:
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Cochrane, John H., 2005.
"The risk and return of venture capital,"
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 3-52, January.
- Cochrane, John, 2000. "The Risk and Return of Venture Capital," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt7qm9h594, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
- John H. Cochrane, 2001. "The Risk and Return of Venture Capital," NBER Working Papers 8066, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Oliver, Gottschalg & Ludovic, Phalippou, 2006.
"The performance of private equity funds,"
Les Cahiers de Recherche
852, HEC Paris.
- Manju Puri & Rebecca Zarutskie, 2012.
"On the Life Cycle Dynamics of Venture-Capital- and Non-Venture-Capital-Financed Firms,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 67(6), pages 2247-2293, December.
- Manju Puri & Rebecca Zarutskie, 2008. "On the Lifecycle Dynamics of Venture-Capital- and Non-Venture-Capital-Financed Firms," NBER Working Papers 14250, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Manju Puri & Rebecca Zarutskie, 2008. "On the Lifecycle Dynamics of Venture-Capital- and Non-Venture-Capital-Financed Firms," Working Papers 08-13, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
- Mason, Colin M. & Harrison, Richard T., 2002. "Is it worth it? The rates of return from informal venture capital investments," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 211-236, May.
- Gerald P. Dwyer, Jr. & Cora Barnhart, 2008.
"Returns to investors in stocks in new industries,"
2008-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Douglas Cumming & Uwe Walz, 2010.
"Private equity returns and disclosure around the world,"
Journal of International Business Studies,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(4), pages 727-754, May.
- Walz, Uwe & Cumming, Douglas, 2004. "Private equity returns and disclosure around the world," CFS Working Paper Series 2004/05, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Tobias J. Moskowitz & Annette Vissing-Jørgensen, 2002. "The Returns to Entrepreneurial Investment: A Private Equity Premium Puzzle?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 745-778, September.
- Tobias J. Moskowitz & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2002. "The Returns to Entrepreneurial Investment: A Private Equity Premium Puzzle?," NBER Working Papers 8876, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Diane Rosenberger).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.