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Política Fiscal E Crescimento De Longo Prazo No Brasil

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  • Gedir Silva de Souza
  • Sérgio Kannebley Júnior

Abstract

O artigo visa à obtenção de evidências sobre a possível relação existente entre a política fiscal adotada pelo governo e as taxas de crescimento econômico observadas no Brasil para o período de 1980 a 2006. Especificamente, examina se a recente experiência brasileira vai ao encontro das predições do modelo Barro (1990), o qual admite que gastos públicos e tributação possam afetar as taxas de crescimento do produto. A fim de possibilitar a realização dos testes empíricos, foram construídas séries temporais para as variáveis do orçamento público, segundo a classificação funcional. Para este fim especifico, foi desenvolvida uma metodologia própria de construção de tais séries de tempo. Os testes econométricos foram conduzidos a partir da estimação de modelos gerais do tipo ADL (Modelos Auto-Regressivos de Distribuição de Defasagens), os quais foram submetidos à aplicação do algoritmo Pc-Gets de Hendry e Krolzig (2004), a fim de que fossem obtidos modelos reduzidos com maior grau de ajustamento e fossem geradas, posteriormente, soluções de longo prazo para tais modelos. Em termos de resultados, verificou-se que os gastos públicos produtivos (principalmente os gastos em saúde, saneamento, educação, cultura, habitação, urbanismo, comunicação, ciência, tecnologia, agricultura, indústria, comércio, serviços, energia, recursos minerais e transportes) estiveram positivamente relacionados às taxas de crescimento do produto, ao passo que, a tributação distorciva (aquela incidente sobre a renda, o faturamento, a folha de salários e a movimentação financeira dos agentes) esteve negativamente relacionada às mesmas taxas. Os resultados mostraram-se robustos, resistindo a alterações da especificação e da agregação para os dados.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Universidade de São Paulo, Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade de Ribeirão Preto in its series Working Papers with number 08_04.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:fea:wpaper:08_04

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Related research

Keywords: política fiscal; crescimento econômico e econometria de séries de tempo;

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References

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  1. Barro, Robert J., 1990. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogeneous Growth," Scholarly Articles 3451296, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  2. Shantayanan Devarajan & Vinaya Swaroop & Heng-fu Zou, 1996. "The composition of public expenditure and economic growth," CEMA Working Papers 77, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
  3. Trish Kelly, 1997. "Public expenditures and growth," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1), pages 60-84.
  4. Kneller, Richard & Bleaney, Michael F. & Gemmell, Norman, 1999. "Fiscal policy and growth: evidence from OECD countries," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 171-190, November.
  5. Paul Cashin, 1994. "Government Spending, Taxes, and Economic Growth," IMF Working Papers 94/92, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
  7. Ram, Rati, 1986. "Government Size and Economic Growth: A New Framework and Some Evidencefrom Cross-Section and Time-Series Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 191-203, March.
  8. Asea, Patrick & Mendoza, Enrique G & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 1996. "On the Ineffectiveness of Tax Policy in Altering Long- Run Growth: Harberger's Superneutrality Conjecture," CEPR Discussion Papers 1378, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Nader Nazmi & Miguel D. Ramirez, 1997. "Public And Private Investment And Economic Growth In Mexico," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 15(1), pages 65-75, 01.
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